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Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Huanhuan Zheng

Abstract

Sovereign borrowing during inflation surges is a litmus test of a government’s ability to withstand and navigate macroeconomic shocks. Based on transaction-level bond issuance data, we explore how sovereign financing strategies differ between surging and stable inflations and how policy practices affect their ability to weather inflation shocks. We find that governments lean more towards external borrowing in foreign currency during periods of high inflation, in part to reduce borrowing costs. This pattern is particularly prevalent in emerging markets (EMs), especially when the inflation surge is prolonged and severe. We further show that good practices of fiscal discipline and credibly pegged exchange rate regime alleviate external borrowing in foreign currency amid inflation surges.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Huanhuan Zheng, 2023. "Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience," NBER Working Papers 31173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31173
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    Cited by:

    1. Ablam Estel Apeti & Bao-We-Wal Bambe & Jean-Louis Combes & Eyah Denise Edoh, 2023. "Original Sin: Fiscal Rules and Government Debt in Foreign Currency in Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-04130477, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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