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Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model

Author

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  • Julio Garín
  • Robert Lester
  • Eric Sims

Abstract

Increasing the inflation target in a textbook New Keynesian (NK) model may require increasing, rather than decreasing, the nominal interest rate in the short run. We refer to this positive short run co-movement between the nominal interest rate and inflation conditional on a nominal shock as Neo-Fisherianism. We show that the NK model is more likely to be Neo-Fisherian the more persistent is the change in the inflation target and the more flexible are prices. Neo-Fisherianism is driven by the forward-looking nature of the model. Modifications which make the framework less forward-looking make it less likely for the model to exhibit Neo-Fisherianism. As an example, we show that a modest and empirically realistic fraction of "rule of thumb" price-setters may altogether eliminate Neo-Fisherianism in the textbook model.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2016. "Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 22177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22177
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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