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Achieving two policy targets with one policy instrument: heterogeneous expectations, countercyclical fiscal policy, and macroeconomic stabilization at the effective lower bound

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  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima
  • Mark Setterfield
  • Jaylson Jair da Silveira

Abstract

We explore the short-term macrodynamics of stabilization policy at the effective lower bound (ELB) of the nominal interest rate, in an environment characterized by heterogenous and endogenously time-varying private-sector output and inflation expectations driven by evolutionary dynamics. We show that at the ELB, fiscal policy conducted in accordance with a well-specified policy rule is particularly effective for purposes of macroeconomic stabilization. This is because fiscal interventions have both a direct effect on output and inflation (via aggregate demand formation) and an indirect effect on these same target variables, via the management of heterogenous and evolving expectations. As a result of the two channels through which it operates, and seemingly despite the logic of the Tinbergen (targets-instruments) principle, fiscal policy is thus revealed as a single policy instrument capable of achieving two policy goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield & Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2023. "Achieving two policy targets with one policy instrument: heterogeneous expectations, countercyclical fiscal policy, and macroeconomic stabilization at the effective lower bound," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_01, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2023wpecon01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stabilization policy; effective lower bound; fiscal policy; heterogeneous inflation and output expectations; satisficing evolutionary dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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