IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17366.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gains and Losses from Potential Bilateral US-China Trade Retaliation

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Dong
  • John Whalley

Abstract

Two closely related numerical general equilibrium models of world trade are used to analyze the potential consequences of US-China bilateral retaliation on trade flows and welfare. One is a conventional Armington trade model with five regions, the US, China, EU, Japan and Rest of the World, and calibrated to a global 2009 micro consistent data set. The other is a modified version of this model with monetary non neutrals and including China's trade surplus as an endogenous variable. Who may gain or loss from global trade conflicts spawned by adjustment pressures in the post crisis world is much debated. In a US-China trade conflict, Europe and Japan would seem gainers from preferential access to US and Chinese markets. The loss of markets would hurt the US, but moving closer to an optimal tariff could be the source of terms of trade gains. And the ease of substitution across trading partners practices would determine costs for China. Results from the conventional model suggest that retaliation between the two countries can be welfare improving for US as it substitutes expenditures into own goods and improve its terms of trade with non retaliatory regions, while China and non retaliatory regions maybe adversely affected. Results in the endogenous trade surplus model from the central case model specification ,however, suggest that both the US and the EU (the deficit regions) have welfare losses in most cases, while the surplus region, China, and the ROW have welfare gains. In both models, when the bilateral tariff rates are very high, gains accrue to the EU and Japan from trade diversion if the substitutions elasticities of imports are high. Costs will are borne by the US and China in lost exports, lowered terms of trade and adjustment costs at home.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Dong & John Whalley, 2011. "Gains and Losses from Potential Bilateral US-China Trade Retaliation," NBER Working Papers 17366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17366
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17366.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuga, Kiyoshi, 1973. "Tariff retaliation and policy equilibrium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 351-366, November.
    2. Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011. "The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 614-621, January.
    3. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1983. "Optimal tariff calculations in alternative trade models and some possible implications for current world trading arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 323-348, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2020. "US–China rivalry: The macro policy choices," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2286-2314, September.
    2. Chunding Li, 2017. "How Would Bilateral Trade Retaliation Affect China?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 459-479, March.
    3. Septiyas Trisilia, Mustika & Widodo, Tri, 2019. "Impacts of China Coal Import Tariff against US on Global Economy and CO2 Emissions," MPRA Paper 91231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Saiful Alim Rosyadi & Tri Widodo, 2018. "Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 125-145, April.
    5. Xia, Yan & Kong, Yishu & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "Impacts of China-US trade conflicts on the energy sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Alim Rosyadi, Saiful & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Impacts of Donald Trump’s Tariff Increase against China on Global Economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model," MPRA Paper 79493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Agnieszka Hajdukiewicz & Bożena Pera, 2020. "International Trade Disputes over Renewable Energy—the Case of the Solar Photovoltaic Sector," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghosh, Madanmohan, 2002. "The revival of regional trade arrangements: a GE evaluation of the impact on small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 83-101, May.
    2. Yan Dong & John Whalley, 2011. "Optimal tariff calculations in tariff games with climate change considerations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1431-1435.
    3. Madanmohan Ghosh & Carlo Perroni & John Whalley, 1998. "The Value of MFN Treatment," NBER Working Papers 6461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2016. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Lack of Retaliatory Trade Intervention," NBER Working Papers 21853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bekkers, Eddy & Francois, Joseph & Nelson, Doug R & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2019. "Trade Wars: Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition," CEPR Discussion Papers 14079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Dan A. Black & Mark C. Berger & Jeffrey A. Smith & Brett J. Noel, 1999. "Is the Threat of Training More Effective Than Training Itself? Experimental Evidence from the UI System," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9907, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    7. Whalley John & Yu Jun & Zhang Shunming, 2012. "Trade Retaliation in a Monetary-Trade Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    8. He, Chuantian & Li, Chunding & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2017. "The Armington assumption and the size of optimal tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 214-222.
    9. Ralph Ossa, 2016. "Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy," NBER Working Papers 22062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "US trade wars with emerging countries in the 21st century: Make America and Its partners lose again," IFPRI discussion papers 1669, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Chunding Li, 2017. "How Would Bilateral Trade Retaliation Affect China?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 459-479, March.
    12. Chattopadhyay, Subir & Mitka, Malgorzata M., 2019. "Nash equilibrium in tariffs in a multi-country trade model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 225-242.
    13. Faruqee, Hamid & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity? A scenario analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2651-2689, August.
    14. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    15. Nidal Rashid Sabri & Marga Peeters & Diama K. Abulaban, 2012. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade integration among North and South Mediterranean countries," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 107-121.
    16. Carlo Perroni & John Whalley, 2000. "The new regionalism: trade liberalization or insurance?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, February.
    17. Tokarick, Stephen, 2006. "A simple rule for assessing tariff and tax incidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 116-120, October.
    18. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2013. "The optimal tariff in the presence of trade-induced productivity gains," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-103, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. John Whalley, 1998. "Why Do Countries Seek Regional Trade Agreements?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 63-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2016. "The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar," CAMA Working Papers 2016-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.