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Trade Retaliation in a Monetary-Trade Model

Author

Listed:
  • John Whalley
  • Jun Yu
  • Shunming Zhang

Abstract

We explore how outcomes of trade policy retaliation (Nash tariff games) are affected when trade simultaneously takes places geographically across countries and through time via financial intermediation. In such models deficits and surpluses in goods trade are endogenously determined, and retaliatory trade policy towards goods can affect these and monetary trade models show different retaliatory trade outcomes from conventional goods only models. We use a general equilibrium goods trade model which also captures trade through time in the form of inside money as used in macro literature on one good overlapping generations models. In this model the deficit or surplus of any country in goods trade is endogenous determined. Optimal trade policy differs from that in a conventional goods only trade model in that countries which run trade deficits in goods will have more strategic power through tariff policy (and surplus countries less) than in models with balanced trade. We calibrate such a model to China’s trade with the rest of the world and explore two country tariff games using 2005 data. Results show the significant impacts on Nash outcomes of endogenizing the Chinese trade surplus in the model in this way.

Suggested Citation

  • John Whalley & Jun Yu & Shunming Zhang, 2009. "Trade Retaliation in a Monetary-Trade Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2526, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2526
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2526.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-797, August.
    2. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1983. "Optimal tariff calculations in alternative trade models and some possible implications for current world trading arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 323-348, November.
    3. Kuga, Kiyoshi, 1973. "Tariff retaliation and policy equilibrium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 351-366, November.
    4. W. M. Gorman, 1958. "Tariffs, Retaliation, and the Elasticity of Demand for Imports," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 133-162.
    5. Lisandro Abrego & Raymond Riezman & John Whalley, 2001. "How Reasonable Are Assumptions Used in Theoretical Models?: Computational Evidence on the Likelihood of Trade Pattern Changes," NBER Working Papers 8169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. G. C. Archibald & R. G. Lipsey, 1958. "Monetary and Value Theory: A Critique of Lange and Patinkin," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inside money; general equilibrium; Nash equilibrium; numerical analysis; tariff rate;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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