How Reasonable Are Assumptions Used in Theoretical Models?: Computational Evidence on the Likelihood of Trade Pattern Changes
This paper seeks to contribute to discussion of the reasonableness of sometimes seemingly innocent assumptions used in theoretical trade models that the direction of trade is both predetermined for each good for each country and fixed. Here, we provide computational evidence as to the reasonableness of this assumption. We consider a simple three-country, three-good, pure-exchange model with CES preferences. We compute free trade competitive equilibria, three-country non-cooperative Nash equilibria, and customs union equilibria for randomized parameterizations, and find that trade patterns change in around 35% of the cases between free trade and customs union equilibria. In three-country Nash and customs unions comparisons trade patterns change roughly 40% of the time. We evaluate alternative cases, including with different numbers of randomizations in the parameter space. Results remain robust, reinforcing our conclusion that the assumption of unchanged trade pattern changes, common in theoretical analysis, does not have firm numerical support in the cases we consider.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Abrego, Lisandro, Raymond Riezman and John Whalley. “How Reasonable are Assumptions Used in Theoretical Models? Computational Evidence on the Likelihood of Trade Pattern Changes." Canadian Journal of Economics 39, 3 (August 2006): 781-789.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 1979.
"An Index Theorem for General Equilibrium Models with Production,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
516, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kehoe, Timothy J, 1980. "An Index Theorem for General Equilibrium Models with Production," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1211-32, July.
- John Kennan & Raymond Riezman, 2013.
"Do Big Countries Win Tariff Wars?,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 4, pages 45-51
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Riezman, Raymond, 1985.
"Customs unions and the core,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 355-365, November.
- Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1999. "Customs Unions and Comparative Advantage," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 239-66, April.
- Berglas, Eitan, 1979. "Preferential Trading Theory: The n Commodity Case," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 315-31, April.
- John Kennan & Raymond Riezman, 1990.
"Optimal Tariff Equilibria with Customs Unions,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 70-83, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.