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Why did HIV decline in Uganda?

  • Marcella M. Alsan
  • David M. Cutler

Uganda is widely viewed as a public health success for curtailing its HIV/AIDS epidemic in the early 1990s. We investigate the factors contributing to this decline. We first build a model of HIV transmission. Calibration of the model indicates that reduced pre-marital sexual activity among young women is the most important factor in the decline in HIV. We next explore what led young women to change their behavior. We estimate that approximately one-third the reduction in HIV in this cohort and almost 20 percent of the overall HIV decline was due to a gender-targeted education policy.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16171.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16171.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16171
Note: HC HE
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  1. Anne Case & Christina Paxson, 2009. "The Impact of the AIDS Pandemic on Health Services in Africa: Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys," NBER Working Papers 15000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pascaline Dupas, 2011. "Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, January.
  3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan & Chinhui Juhn, 2009. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," 2009 Meeting Papers 650, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Baird, Sarah & Chirwa, Ephraim & McIntosh, Craig & Ozler, Berk, 2009. "The short-term impacts of a schooling conditional cash transfer program on the sexual behavior of young women," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5089, The World Bank.
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