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Long-term consequences of vietnam-era conscription: schooling, experience, and earnings

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  • Joshua D. Angrist
  • Stacey H. Chen

Abstract

This paper uses the 2000 Census 1-in-6 sample to look at the long-term impact of Vietnam-era military service. Instrumental Variables estimates using draft-lottery instruments show post-service earnings losses close to zero in 2000, in contrast with earlier results showing substantial earnings losses for white veterans in the 1970s and 1980s. The estimates also point to a marked increase in schooling that appears to be attributable to the Vietnam-era GI Bill. The net wage effects observed in the 2000 data can be explained by a flattening of the experience profile in middle age and a modest return to the increased schooling generated by the GI Bill. Evidence on disability effects is mixed but seems inconsistent with a long-term effect of Vietnam-era military service on health.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13411.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Publication status: published as “Long-Term Consequences of Vietnam-Era Conscrip tion: New estimates Using SSA Data,” (with Stacey Chen and Jae Song), AER Papers and Proceedings , May 2011.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13411
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Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
  • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
  • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
  • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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  1. Joshua D. Angrist, 1993. "The Effect of Veterans Benefits on Education and Earnings," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(4), pages 637-652, July.
  2. Kelly Bedard & Olivier Deschênes, 2006. "The Long-Term Impact of Military Service on Health: Evidence from World War II and Korean War Veterans," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 176-194, March.
  3. Newey, W.K., 1989. "Efficient Instrumental Variables Estimation Of Nonlinear Models," Papers 341, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Jaeger, David A, 1997. "Reconciling the Old and New Census Bureau Education Questions: Recommendations for Researchers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 300-309, July.
  5. Mark C. Berger & Barry T. Hirsch, 1983. "The Civilian Earnings Experience of Vietnam - Era Veterans," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(4), pages 455-479.
  6. Imbens, G. & Van Der Klaauw, W., 1993. "Evaluating the Cost of Conscription in the Netherlands," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1632, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Thomas Lemieux & David Card, 2001. "Going to College to Avoid the Draft: The Unintended Legacy of the Vietnam War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 97-102, May.
  8. Joshua D. Angrist, 1990. "The Draft Lottery and Voluntary Enlistment in the Vietnam Era," NBER Working Papers 3514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
  10. Sarah E. Turner & John Bound, 2002. "Closing the Gap or Widening the Divide: The Effects of the G.I. Bill and World War II on the Educational Outcomes of Black Americans," NBER Working Papers 9044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. John Bound & Sarah Turner, 2002. "Going to War and Going to College: Did World War II and the G.I. Bill Increase Educational Attainment for Returning Veterans?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 784-815, October.
  12. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2007. "Distinguishing Income from Substitution Effects in Disability Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 119-124, May.
  13. Carlos Dobkin & Reza Shabani, 2009. "The Health Effects Of Military Service: Evidence From The Vietnam Draft," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 69-80, 01.
  14. Heckman, James J. & Lochner, Lance John & Todd, Petra E., 2005. "Earnings Functions, Rates of Return and Treatment Effects: The Mincer Equation and Beyond," IZA Discussion Papers 1700, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Neil S. Seftor & NSarah E. Turner, 2002. "Back to School: Federal Student Aid Policy and Adult College Enrollment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 37(2), pages 336-352.
  16. Anderson, T W & Kunitomo, Naoto & Sawa, Takamitsu, 1982. "Evaluation of the Distribution Function of the Limited Information Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1009-27, July.
  17. Mark Duggan & Robert Rosenheck & Perry Singleton, 2006. "Federal Policy and the Rise in Disability Enrollment: Evidence for the VA's Disability Compensation Program," NBER Working Papers 12323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Thomas Lemieux & David Card, 2001. "Education, earnings, and the "Canadian G.I. Bill"," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 313-344, May.
  19. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Split-Sample Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Return to Schooling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 225-35, April.
  20. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 1992. "Estimating the Payoff to Schooling Using the Vietnam-Era Draft Lottery," NBER Working Papers 4067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-81, May.
  22. Alan B. Krueger & Joshua D. Angrist, 1989. "Why do World War II Veterans Earn More Than Nonveterans?," NBER Working Papers 2991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Saul Schwartz, 1986. "The Relative Earnings of Vietnam and Korean-Era Veterans," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 39(4), pages 564-572, July.
  24. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 313-36, June.
  25. J.D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & D.B. Rubin, 1993. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:

  1. Boyle, Melissa A. & Lahey, Joanna N., 2010. "Health insurance and the labor supply decisions of older workers: Evidence from a U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs expansion," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(7-8), pages 467-478, August.
  2. Sebastian Galiani & Martín A. Rossi & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2010. "Conscription and Crime: Evidence from the Argentine Draft Lottery," Working Papers 2010.55, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Dalton Conley & Jennifer A. Heerwig, 2009. "The Long-Term Effects of Military Conscription on Mortality: Estimates from the Vietnam-era Draft Lottery," NBER Working Papers 15105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dalton Conley & Jennifer Heerwig, 2011. "The War at Home: Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on Postwar Household Stability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 350-54, May.
  5. Dalton Conley & Jennifer Heerwig, 2012. "The Long-Term Effects of Military Conscription on Mortality: Estimates From the Vietnam-Era Draft Lottery," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 841-855, August.
  6. Barry T. Hirsch, 2008. "Wage Gaps Large and Small," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 914-933, April.
  7. Daniel Eisenberg & Brian Rowe, 2008. "The Effects of Smoking in Young Adulthood on Smoking and Health Later in Life: Evidence Based on the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery," Working Papers 08-35, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  8. Rosemary Hyson & Alice Zawacki, 2008. "Health-Related Research Using Confidential U.S. Census Bureau Data," Working Papers 08-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  9. Asadul Islam Author-X-Name-Asadul, 2008. "Who Benefits From Microfinance? The Impact Evaluation Of Large Scale Programs In Bangladesh," Monash Economics Working Papers 29/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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