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Economic Determinants of Third Party Intervention in Civil Conflict

  • Vincenzo Bove


    (Department of Government, University of Essex)

  • Petros G. Sekeris


    (Center for Research in the Economics of Development, University of Namur)

Our paper explores the economic conditions that lead third parties to intervene in ongoing internal wars. We develop a formal model that ties together some of the main forces driving the decision to interfere in a civil war, including the economic benefits accruing from the intervention and the potential costs associated with such choice. We predict that third party interventions are most likely in civil conflicts where the country at war harbors a profitable industry as a consequence of its high levels of peace-time production and state strength, while the opposition forces’ strength reduces the likelihood of intervention. We also present novel empirical results on the role of valuable goods, i.e. oil, in prompting third party military intervention in contexts of high state stability, by using a dataset on intrastate conflicts on the period 1960-1999.

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Paper provided by University of Namur, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1115.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nam:wpaper:1115
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  1. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
  3. J. Atsu Amegashie & Edward Kutsoati, 2005. "(Non)Intervention In Intra-State Conflicts," Working Papers 0504, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  4. James D. Fearon, 2005. "Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 483-507, August.
  5. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2006. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 335-366, April.
  6. Jean-Paul Azam & Véronique Thelen, 2010. "Foreign Aid Versus Military Intervention in the War on Terror," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 237-261, April.
  7. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "External interventions and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2433, The World Bank.
  8. Lise Howard, 2006. "Michael Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis, Making war and building peace: United Nations peace operations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 401-403, December.
  9. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Elia, 2011. "Supplying peace: Participation in and troop contribution to peacekeeping missions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(6), pages 699-714, November.
  10. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2009. "Foreign Aid vs. Military Intervention in the War on Terror," TSE Working Papers 09-061, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  11. Besley, Timothy J. & Persson, Torsten, 2008. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke & Soderbom, Mans, 2001. "On the duration of civil war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2681, The World Bank.
  13. Vincenzo Bove & Ron Smith, 2011. "The Economics of Peacekeeping," Chapters, in: Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 10 Edward Elgar.
  14. Marshall Burke & John Dykema & David Lobell & Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath, 2010. "Climate and Civil War: Is the Relationship Robust?," NBER Working Papers 16440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Yang-Ming Chang & Shane Sanders, 2009. "Raising The Cost Of Rebellion: The Role Of Third-Party Intervention In Intrastate Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 149-169.
  16. Gani Aldashev & Catherine Guirkinger, 2011. "Deadly Anchor: Gender Bias under Russian Colonization of Kazakhstan, 1898-1908," Working Papers 1111, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
  17. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
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