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Raising The Cost Of Rebellion: The Role Of Third-Party Intervention In Intrastate Conflict

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  • Yang-Ming Chang
  • Shane Sanders

Abstract

This paper presents a simple model to characterize explicitly the role that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson-Grossman (2000) framework of conflict in a two-stage game to the case involving outside intervention in a three-stage game as in Chang et al. (2007b), we examine the conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i) the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party optimally intervenes but at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such behavior, which improves the incumbent government's potential to succeed in conflict, is overlooked in some conflict studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that an increase in the strength of inter-governmental trade partnerships increases the likelihood that third-party intervention deters rebellion.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang-Ming Chang & Shane Sanders, 2009. "Raising The Cost Of Rebellion: The Role Of Third-Party Intervention In Intrastate Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 149-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:149-169
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690802221742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herschel Grossman, 2004. "Peace and War in Territorial Disputes," Working Papers 2004-07, Brown University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Friedhelm Hentschel, 2023. "Alternative intervention mechanisms in rent-seeking contests," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 453-471, December.
    2. Chang, Yang-Ming & Sanders, Shane & Walia, Bhavneet, 2015. "The costs of conflict: A choice-theoretic, equilibrium analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 62-65.
    3. Vincent Auger & Yang-Ming Chang & Shane Sanders, 2017. "Do Humanitarian Interventions Help Humanity? An Economic Analysis of the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ Norm in Intrastate Conflicts," Journal of Development Innovations, KarmaQuest International, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Yang-Ming Chang & Manaf Sellak, 2019. "A game-theoretic analysis of international trade and political conflict over external territories," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 209-228, June.
    5. Vincenzo Bove & Petros Sekeris, 2011. "Economic Determinants of Third-Party Intervention in Civil Conflict," NEPS Working Papers 4/2011, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    6. Zuleta, Hernando & Villaveces, Marta Juanita & Andonova, Veneta, 2013. "Conflict and negotiation in Colombia: Are pre-donations useful?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 105-117.
    7. Shane Sanders & Bhavneet Walia, 2014. "Endogenous Destruction in a Model of Armed Conflict: Implications for Conflict Intensity, Welfare, and Third-Party Intervention," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(4), pages 606-619, August.
    8. Friedhelm Hentschel, 2024. "Sharing rules in rent-seeking contests with third-party intervention," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 401-414, September.
    9. Vincenzo Bove & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Petros G. Sekeris, 2016. "“Oil above Waterâ€," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(7), pages 1251-1277, October.
    10. Gupta, Rupayan, 2008. "The Effect of Opportunity Cost and Pacifism on Protests in Occupied Regions," MPRA Paper 24015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2010.
    11. Chang, Yang-Ming & Sellak, Manaf, 2025. "Alliances and strategic advantage in sequential-move contests: Implications for offensive vs. defensive strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    12. Yang-Ming Chang & Zijun Luo, 2017. "Endogenous Destruction In Conflict: Theory And Extensions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 479-500, January.
    13. Colin Hannigan, 2019. "Toward a holistic networks approach to strategic third-party intervention: A literature review," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 277-292, September.
    14. João Ricardo Faria & Andreas Novak & Aniruddha Bagchi & Timothy Mathews, 2020. "The Refugee Game: The Relationship between Individual Security Expenditures and Collective Security," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, June.
    15. James W. Boudreau & Timothy Mathews & Shane D. Sanders & Aniruddha Bagchi, 2022. "Conflicts with Momentum," Games, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, January.
    16. Chang Yang-Ming & Sanders Shane D., 2009. "Corruption on the Court: The Causes and Social Consequences of Point-Shaving in NCAA Basketball," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 269-291, May.
    17. Friedhelm Hentschel, 2022. "Third-party intervention in secessions," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 65-82, March.
    18. Dong, Zhiqiang & Zhang, Yongjing, 2016. "A sequential game of endowment effect and natural property rights," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 108-111.
    19. Yang-Ming Chang & Manaf Sellak, 2024. "Conflict and agreement in the collective choice of trade policies: implications for interstate disputes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 199(1), pages 103-135, April.
    20. Timothy Mathews & Shane Sanders, 2019. "Strategic and experimental analyses of conflict and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 169-174, June.

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