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Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos

Author

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  • Juan Felipe Riaño
  • Felipe Valencia Caicedo

Abstract

We investigate the long-term impact of conflict on economic development, focusing on the US ‘Secret War’ in Laos (1964–73). Our study employs multiple empirical strategies and data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery, and development indicators to demonstrate that regions heavily bombed during this period experienced lower economic development almost fifty years after the conflict officially ended. A one-standard-deviation increase in bombing intensity is associated with a 7.1% decrease in GDP per capita. We demonstrate the persistent effects of bombing campaigns on human capital accumulation, structural transformation and migration patterns, stressing the role of unexploded ordnance contamination as the primary mechanism of transmission of these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Felipe Riaño & Felipe Valencia Caicedo, 2024. "Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(661), pages 2101-2140.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:134:y:2024:i:661:p:2101-2140.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueae004
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    Cited by:

    1. Tien Manh Vu & Hiroyuki Yamada, 2025. "Perceived risk of landmines and the welfare of Cambodian agricultural households," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series DP2025-026, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    2. Nicol√°s de Roux & Luis Roberto MartÔøΩnez, 2021. "Forgone Investment: Civil Conflict and Agricultural Credit in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19236, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Tran, Tuyen Quang & Van Vu, Huong, 2024. "The long-term effects of war on foreign direct investment and economic development: evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Yeonha Jung & Gedeon Lim & Sangyoon Park, 2025. "Civilian Killings and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the Korean War," CESifo Working Paper Series 11974, CESifo.
    6. Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2025. "Landmines: The local effects of demining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    7. Hoch, Georg & Pondorfer, Andreas & Shkola, Viktoriia, 2025. "Conflict and social capital: Evidence from the Russian War against Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 461-471.
    8. Naudé, Wim & Amorós, Ernesto & Brück, Tilman, 2023. "State-Based Conflict and Entrepreneurship: Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 15946, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Luca Repetto & Davide Cipullo & Edward Pinchbeck & Jan Bietenbeck, 2026. "Human-Capital Shocks and Innovation: Evidence from Britain’s Lost Generation," CESifo Working Paper Series 12529, CESifo.
    10. Nicol√°s de Roux & Luis MartÔøΩnez, 2021. "Inversi√≥n Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Cr√©dito Agr√≠cola en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19622, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    11. Bandiera,Antonella Agostina & Dinarte Diaz,Lelys Ileana & Jimenez,Juan Miguel & Rozo Villarraga,Sandra Viviana & Sviatschi,Maria Micaela, 2022. "Rebel Governance and Development: The Persistent Effects of Guerrillas in El Salvador," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10222, The World Bank.
    12. Najam, Rafiuddin & Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Kattan, Raja Bentaouet, 2024. "The Mis-Education of Women in Afghanistan: From Wage Premiums to Economic Losses," IZA Discussion Papers 17279, IZA Network @ LISER.
    13. Dominic Rohner, 2025. "Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 12035, CESifo.
    14. Riga Qi, 2025. "Destroy and Build? Economic Effects of Centres de Regroupement in the Algerian War," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp806, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Giorgio Chiovelli & Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2025. "Landmines and Spatial Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(5), pages 1739-1778, September.
    16. Andersson, Magnus & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Keola, Souknilanh & Yamanouchi, Kenta, 2025. "Impacts of international transport infrastructure: Evidence from Laotian households," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    17. Jun Ma & Jinliang Wang & Jianpeng Zhang & Suling He & Lanfang Liu & Xuzheng Zhong, 2024. "The Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Value in Laos between 2000 and 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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