IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mos/moswps/2009-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth And Capital Deepening Since 1870: Is It All Technological Progress?

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob B. Madsen

Abstract

Based on an asset pricing model this paper shows that traditional growth accounting exercises attribute too much weight to capital deepening and suggests a method to filter out TFP-induced capital-deepening from the estimates. Using data for 16 industrialised countries, it is shown that labour productivity and capital deepening have been driven by total factor productivity and reductions in the required stock returns over the past 137 years. Furthermore, it is shown that TFP precedes the K-L ratio and not the other way around.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "Growth And Capital Deepening Since 1870: Is It All Technological Progress?," Monash Economics Working Papers 10-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2009-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2009/1009growthmadsen.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1993. "Movements in the Equity Premium," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 75-138.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1999. "Notes on Growth Accounting," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 119-137, June.
    3. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Albrecht Ritschl, 2009. "Understanding West German economic growth in the 1950s," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 191-219, October.
    5. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    6. Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A., 1986. "Errors in variables in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 93-118, February.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    8. John Heaton & Deborah J. Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Michael Huberman & Chris Minns, 2005. "Hours of Work in Old and New Worlds: The Long View, 1870-2000," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp95, IIIS.
    10. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    11. Madsen, Jakob B., 2007. "Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 464-480, July.
    12. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    14. Prescott, Edward C, 1998. "Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 525-551, August.
    15. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    16. Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2006. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 791-811, July.
    17. Huberman, Michael, 2004. "Working Hours of the World Unite? New International Evidence of Worktime, 1870 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(04), pages 964-1001, December.
    18. Madsen, Jakob B, 1998. "General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models of Unemployment: Can They Explain the Unemployment Path in the OECD?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 850-867, May.
    19. Temin, Peter, 2002. "The Golden Age of European growth reconsidered," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 3-22, April.
    20. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "The Macroeconomics Of Stock Prices In The Medium Term And In The Long Run," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(2), pages 127-152, March.
    21. Michael T. Kiley, 2004. "Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 909-936, October.
    22. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2002. "What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence From the Factor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 502-526, June.
    23. Magnus Blomström & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1996. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 269-276.
    24. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514 Elsevier.
    25. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    26. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    27. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Madsen, Jakob B., 2010. "Growth and capital deepening since 1870: Is it all technological progress?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 641-656, June.
    29. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2007. "Capital, innovation, and growth accounting," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 79-93, Spring.
    30. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    31. Jakob B. Madsen, 2008. "Economic Growth, TFP Convergence and the World Export of Ideas: A Century of Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 145-167, March.
    32. Madsen, Jakob B., 2004. "Price and wage stickiness during the Great Depression," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(03), pages 263-295, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2015. "GDP per capita in advanced countries over the 20th century," Working papers 549, Banque de France.
    2. Madsen, Jakob B., 2010. "Growth and capital deepening since 1870: Is it all technological progress?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 641-656, June.
    3. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2014. "Le produit intérieur brut par habitant sur longue période en France et dans les pays avancés : le rôle de la productivité et de l’emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 474(1), pages 5-34.
    4. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    5. Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2017. "Regulations and productivity: Long run effects and nonlinear influences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 244-252.
    6. Sala, Hector & Trivín, Pedro, 2017. "The Effects of Globalization and Technology on the Elasticity of Substitution," IZA Discussion Papers 10898, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Exceptional Australian Incomes Since 1800," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 264-290, November.
    8. Judzik, Dario & Sala, Hector, 2015. "The determinants of capital intensity in Japan and the US," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    9. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "The Anatomy of Growth in the OECD since 1870: the Transformation from the Post-Malthusian Growth Regime to the Modern Growth Epoch," Monash Economics Working Papers 14-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    10. Lindmark, Magnus & Andersson, Lars Fredrik, 2014. "Where Was the Wealth of the Nation? Measuring Swedish Capital for the 19th and 20th Centuries," CERE Working Papers 2014:1, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    11. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2016. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth," Working papers 588, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth accounting; TFP growth; required stock returns; endogeneity;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2009-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Angus). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.