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Carrot or stick? Redistributive transfers versus policing in contexts of civil unrest

Author

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  • Patricia Justino

    (Institute of Development Studies at Sussex)

Abstract

Recurrent episodes of civil unrest significantly reduce the potential for economic growth and poverty reduction. Yet the economics literature offers little understanding of what triggers civil unrest in society and how to prevent it. This paper provides a theoretical analysis in a dynamic setting of the merits of redistributive transfers in preventing the onset of (and reducing) civil unrest and compare it with policies of more direct intervention such as the use of police. We present empirical evidence for a panel of Indian states, where conflict, transfers and policing are treated as endogenous variables. Our empirical results show, in the mediumterm, redistributive transfers are both a more successful and cost-effective means to reduce civil unrest. Policing is at best a short-term strategy. In the longer term, it may trigger further social discontent.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Justino, 2007. "Carrot or stick? Redistributive transfers versus policing in contexts of civil unrest," Research Working Papers 3, MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:3
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    File URL: http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP3_PJ.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Julien LABONNE & Adama BAH & Jean-Louis ARCAND, 2010. "Conflict, Ideology and Foreign Aid," Working Papers 201021, CERDI.
    2. Zürcher, Christoph, 2017. "What Do We (Not) Know About Development Aid and Violence? A Systematic Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 506-522.
    3. Jean-François Maystadt, 2008. "Does inequality make us rebel? A revisited theoretical model applied to South Mexico," HiCN Working Papers 41, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Justino, Patricia, 2025. "Revisiting the links between economic inequality and political violence: The role of social mobilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    5. Frances Stewart, 2013. "The Politics of Poverty Reduction by Paul Mosley with Blessing Chiripanhura , Jean Grugel, and Ben Thirkell-White , Oxford : Oxford University Press , 2012 , viii + 411 pp," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 51(4), pages 402-405, December.
    6. Angulo Amaya, Maria Camila, 2024. "Criminal governance and public resources: The case of paramilitaries and health care provision in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    7. Boubacar, Inoussa & Nene, Gibson, 2024. "Land to the landless: Does the type of approach matter?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Yashodhan Ghorpade, 2020. "Calamity, Conflict, and Cash Transfers: How Violence Affects Access to Aid in Pakistan," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 1131-1184.
    9. Patricia Justino, 2022. "Revisiting the links between economic inequality and political violence: The role of social mobilization," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-19, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Patricia Justino, 2012. "Shared Societies and Armed Conflict: Costs, Inequality and the Benefits of Peace," Working Papers 2012/35, Maastricht School of Management.
    11. Borany Penh, 2009. "New Convergences in Poverty Reduction, Conflict, and State Fragility: What Business Should Know," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 89(4), pages 515-528, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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