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Export market exit and firm survival: theory and first evidence

  • Sanne Hiller

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)

  • Philipp J.H. Schroeder

    ()

    (Aarhus University, School of Business and Social Sciences, Department of Economics and Business, Denmark)

  • Allan Sorensen

    ()

    (Aarhus University, School of Business and Social Sciences, Department of Economics and Business, Denmark)

This paper deploys a dynamic extension of the Melitz (2003) model to generate predictions on export market exit and firm survival in a setting where firms endogenously make exit decisions. The central driver of the model dynamics is the inclusion of exogenous economy wide technological progress. The model predicts – inter alia – that a higher relative productivity not only increases the likelihood of exporting, but also the chances of firm survival and continued export market engagements. We relate these predictions to the empirical stylized facts of export market exit and firm survival based on Danish firm-level data. We find strong evidence that firms experience a decline in market share prior to export market exit and prior to death and that the firms discontinuing their exporting activity or closing down tend to be small. Overall, our empirical results support the central predictions from the model.

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Paper provided by University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics with number 262.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:262
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://leuphana.de/institute/ivwl.html

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  1. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
  2. Costas Arkolakis, 2009. "A Unified Theory of Firm Selection and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2679, CESifo Group Munich.
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  4. Amil Petrin & Brian P. Poi & James Levinsohn, 2004. "Production function estimation in Stata using inputs to control for unobservables," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 113-123, June.
  5. Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Luca David Opromolla, 2008. "A Theory of Entry and Exit into Exports Markets," Working Papers w200820, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Thierry Mayer & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2008. "The Happy Few: The Internationalisation of European Firms," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 135-148, May.
  7. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341, 04.
  8. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  9. Joachim Wagner, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Firm Survival: First evidence for manufacturing enterprises in Germany," Working Paper Series in Economics 211, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  10. Schröder, Philipp J.H. & Sørensen, Allan, 2012. "Firm exit, technological progress and trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 579-591.
  11. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-90.
  12. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
  13. Dasgupta, Partha & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1981. "Entry, innovation, exit : Towards a dynamic theory of oligopolistic industrial structure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-158.
  14. Balazs Murakozy & Gabor Bekes, 2009. "Temporary Trade," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0909, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  15. Fariñas, Jose C. & Ruano, Sonia, 2005. "Firm productivity, heterogeneity, sunk costs and market selection," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 505-534, September.
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