IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Understanding Output and Price Dynamics in Japan: Why Have Japan's Price Movements Been Relatively Stable Since the 1990s?

  • Masahiko Shibamoto

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

  • Ryuzo Miyao

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Since the beginning of the 1990s, Japanese inflation has been relatively stable with slight declines, while output has remained volatile with a prolonged stagnation. This paper attempts to explore possible explanations for these macroeconomic facts based on the aggregate demand and supply framework. Specifically, applying a vector autoregressive framework that allows for correlations between structural disturbances, it examines two broad questions in a unified way: (i) whether the slope of the short-run aggregate supply curve became significantly flattened and/or (ii) whether structural demand and supply shocks are more strongly positive correlated. Our results suggest that positive correlation between structural demand and supply shocks has become stronger since the 1990s, while there is less evidence that the short-run aggregate supply curve has been flattened. We argue that shifts in aggregate demand and supply curves in the same direction lead to larger, permanent effects on output and to limited effects on prices in Japan.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/dp219.pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 219.

as
in new window

Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:219
Contact details of provider: Postal: 2-1 Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501 JAPAN
Phone: +81-(0)78 803 7036
Fax: +81-(0)78 803 7059
Web page: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/index-e.html

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," NBER Working Papers 12129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Laurence Ball & David Romer, 1987. "Real Rigidities and the Non-Neutrality of Money," NBER Working Papers 2476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 418-440, December.
  6. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  8. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006. "The causes of Japan's `lost decade': The role of household consumption," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 378-400, December.
  9. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa, 2007. "The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages C167-C191, 03.
  10. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  12. Cover, James Peery & Enders, Walter & Hueng, C. James, 2006. "Using the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model to Identify Structural Demand-Side and Supply-Side Shocks: Results Using a Bivariate VAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 777-790, April.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  14. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 80-102, February.
  15. Pelloni, Alessandra, 1997. "Nominal Shocks, Endogenous Growth and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 467-74, March.
  16. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. " Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short-Run Persistence and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 147-62, June.
  18. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  20. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  21. Kimura, Takeshi & Ueda, Kazuo, 2001. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 50-67, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.