IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kob/dpaper/dp2022-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cyclical Activity and Inflation under Secular Stagnation: Empirical Evidence Using Data on Japan's Lost Decades

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiko Shibamoto

    (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration and Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN)

Abstract

This paper disputes the suspicions about the existence and stability of the trade-off between nominal inflation and the real economy when missing deflation and reinflation under secular stagnation by providing empirical evidence of the stability of this short-run trade-off. To this end, we construct a simple measure of demand-pull pressures, namely the cyclical activity index, using time-series data for a period that includes Japan's secular stagnation. We then quantitatively examine the relationship between inflation and the measured cyclical activity. The empirical results support that the cyclical activity index has a stable and economically meaningful relationship with short-term inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiko Shibamoto, 2022. "Cyclical Activity and Inflation under Secular Stagnation: Empirical Evidence Using Data on Japan's Lost Decades," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-32, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2022-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2022-32.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masahiko Shibamoto & Ryuzo Miyao, 2008. "Understanding Output and Price Dynamics in Japan: Why Have Japan's Price Movements Been Relatively Stable Since the 1990s?," Discussion Paper Series 219, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    2. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    3. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    4. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    9. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
    11. Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2011. "Cyclical behavior of unemployment and job vacancies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 214-225.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    13. Hoshi,Takeo & Lipscy,Phillip Y. (ed.), 2021. "The Political Economy of the Abe Government and Abenomics Reforms," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108843959, September.
    14. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2022. "Long‐term inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 158-174, January.
    2. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-M?ller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    3. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2017. "Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(3), pages 427-449, September.
    4. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    5. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    6. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2019. "A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short‐Term Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 111-137, February.
    7. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    8. Giraud, Gaël & Grasselli, Matheus, 2021. "Household debt: The missing link between inequality and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 901-927.
    9. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2018. "Disinflation and improved anchoring of long-term inflation expectations - The Icelandic experience," Economics wp77, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    11. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    12. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2007. "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability: The case of Spain, 1964-2002," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 453-462.
    13. Masahiko Shibamoto, 2023. "Inflation, Business Cycle, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Inflationary Pressure," Discussion Paper Series DP2023-04, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    14. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    15. Baum, Christopher F & Karasulu, Meral, 1998. "Modelling Federal Reserve Discount Policy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 53-70, April.
    16. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
    17. Aslanidis, Nektarios, 2007. "Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach," Working Papers 2072/5318, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    18. Li, Kunpeng & Lin, Wei, 2024. "Threshold spatial autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
    19. Kadilli, Anjeza & Krishnakumar, Jaya, 2022. "Smooth Transition Simultaneous Equation Models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    20. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2022-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rikobjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.