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Aging, transitional dynamics, and gains from trade

  • Takumi Naito

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan)

  • Laixun Zhao

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

We formulate a two-country, two-good, two-factor, two-period-lived overlapping generations model to examine how population aging determines the pattern of and gains from trade. We obtain two main results. First, the aging country endogenously becomes a small country exporting the capital-intensive good, whereas the younger country endogenously dominates the world economy determining the world prices, in the free trade steady state. Second, although uncompensated free trade cannot be Pareto superior to autarky, there exists a compensation scheme applied within each country such that free trade is Pareto superior to autarky.

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Paper provided by Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 215.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:215
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  1. Kemp, M.C. & Wong, K.Y., 1992. "Gains from Trade with Overlapping Generations," Working Papers 92-06, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  2. Richard Johnson, 2004. "Economic policy implications of world demographic change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 39-64.
  3. Sayan, Serdar, 2005. "Heckscher-Ohlin revisited: implications of differential population dynamics for trade within an overlapping generations framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1471-1493, September.
  4. Martin Floden & David Domeij, 2004. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," 2004 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 3.
  6. Michel Aglietta & Jean Chateau & Jacky Fayolle & Michel Juillard & Jacques Le Cacheux & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Post-Print halshs-00754230, HAL.
  7. Mehdi Jelassi & Serdar Sayan, 2003. "Implications of Unequal Rates of Population Growth for Trade," Working Papers 0302, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  8. Mehdi Jelassi & Serdar Sayan, 2004. "Implications of Unequal Rates of Population Growth for Trade Revisited : Lessons from Closed Form Solutions to an Overlapping Generations General Equilibrium Model under Autarky and Trade Scenarios," Working Papers 0401, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  9. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
  10. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2000. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Impact of the Age Structure of the Population on the Household Saving Rate in Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 511-516, August.
  12. Momota, Akira & Futagami, Koichi, 2005. "Demographic structure, international lending and borrowing in growing interdependent economies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 135-162, March.
  13. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2008. "Endogenous fiscal policy and capital market transmissions in the presence of demographic shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2031-2060, June.
  14. Ohtake, F. & Horioka, C.Y., 1995. "Saving Motives in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0392, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  15. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
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