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International trade with pensions and demographic shocks

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  • Fedotenkov, Igor
  • van Groezen, Bas
  • Meijdam, Lex

Abstract

The central question of this paper is how international trade and specialization are affected by different designs of pension schemes and asymmetric demographic changes. In a model with two goods, two countries and two production factors, we find that countries with a relatively large unfunded pension scheme will specialize in the production of labour intensive goods. If these countries are hit by a negative demographic shock, this specialization will intensify in the long run. Eventually, these countries may even completely specialize in the production of those goods. The effects spill over to other countries, which will move away from complete specialization in capital intensive goods as the relative size of their labour intensive goods sector will also increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Fedotenkov, Igor & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2012. "International trade with pensions and demographic shocks," MPRA Paper 74874, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 May 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74874
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographics; international spillovers; pensions; trade; specialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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