IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Hazard Model of the Probability of Medical School Dropout in the United Kingdom


  • Arulampalam, Wiji

    () (University of Warwick)

  • Naylor, Robin

    () (University of Warwick)

  • Smith, Jeremy

    () (University of Warwick)


From individual-level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we analyse the probability that an individual student will ‘drop out’ of medical school prior to the successful completion of their studies. We examine the cohort of students enrolling for a medical degree at the start of the academic years 1985 or 1986. We find evidence that medical student completion is influenced by measures of academic preparedness, sex, and age as well as by the characteristics of the medical school itself. On the basis of our results, we also comment on the construction of institutional performance indicators against the criterion of student dropout.

Suggested Citation

  • Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "A Hazard Model of the Probability of Medical School Dropout in the United Kingdom," IZA Discussion Papers 333, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp333

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeremy P. Smith & Robin A. Naylor, 2001. "Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 389-405.
    2. Mealli, Fabrizia & Pudney, Stephen & Thomas, Jonathan M, 1996. "Training Duration and Post-training Outcomes: A Duration-Limited Competing Risks Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 422-433, March.
    3. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Machin, Stephen & Oswald, Andrew, 2000. "UK Economics and the Future Supply of Academic Economists," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages 334-349, June.
    5. van Ours, J.C. & Ridder, G., 1999. "Fast track or Failure : A Study of the Completion Rates of Graduate Students in Economics," Discussion Paper 1999-118, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-381, Oct.-Dec..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Wydra-Somaggio, Gabriele, 2017. "Early termination of vocational training: dropout or stopout?," IAB Discussion Paper 201703, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Factors affecting the probability of first-year medical student dropout in the UK : a logistic analysis for the entry cohorts of 1980-1992," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 618, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Jakobsen, Vibeke & Rosholm, Michael, 2003. "Dropping out of School? A Competing Risks Analysis of Young Immigrants’ Progress in the Educational System," IZA Discussion Papers 918, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. G. Boero & A. Mcknight & R. Naylor & J. Smith, 2001. "Graduates and graduate labour markets in the UK and Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 200111, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    More about this item


    limited duration model; Medical students; student dropout (non-completion) probabilities; discrete time hazard; survival analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.