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A Hazard Model of the Probability of Medical School Dropout in the United Kingdom

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  • Arulampalam, Wiji

    (University of Warwick)

  • Naylor, Robin

    (University of Warwick)

  • Smith, Jeremy

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

From individual-level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we analyse the probability that an individual student will ‘drop out’ of medical school prior to the successful completion of their studies. We examine the cohort of students enrolling for a medical degree at the start of the academic years 1985 or 1986. We find evidence that medical student completion is influenced by measures of academic preparedness, sex, and age as well as by the characteristics of the medical school itself. On the basis of our results, we also comment on the construction of institutional performance indicators against the criterion of student dropout.

Suggested Citation

  • Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "A Hazard Model of the Probability of Medical School Dropout in the United Kingdom," IZA Discussion Papers 333, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp333
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-381, Oct.-Dec..
    2. van Ours, J.C. & Ridder, G., 1999. "Fast track or Failure : A Study of the Completion Rates of Graduate Students in Economics," Other publications TiSEM 153c8198-e2e7-49b5-8a80-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Wiji Narendranathan & Mark B. Stewart, 1993. "Modelling the Probability of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models with Flexible Base‐Line Hazards," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 42(1), pages 63-83, March.
    4. Machin, Stephen & Oswald, Andrew, 2000. "UK Economics and the Future Supply of Academic Economists," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages 334-349, June.
    5. Jeremy P. Smith & Robin A. Naylor, 2001. "Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 389-405.
    6. Mealli, Fabrizia & Pudney, Stephen & Thomas, Jonathan M, 1996. "Training Duration and Post-training Outcomes: A Duration-Limited Competing Risks Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 422-433, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianna Boero & Abigail McKnight & Robin Naylor & Jeremy Smith, 2004. "Graduates and Graduate Labour Markets in the UK and Italy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniele Checchi & Claudio Lucifora (ed.), Education, Training and Labour Market Outcomes in Europe, chapter 6, pages 129-165, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Gérard Lassibille & María Lucía Navarro Gómez, 2008. "Why do higher education students drop out? Evidence from Spain," Post-Print halshs-00324365, HAL.
    3. Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Factors affecting the probability of first-year medical student dropout in the UK: a logistic analysis for the entry cohorts of 1980-1992," Economic Research Papers 269388, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    4. Jakobsen, Vibeke & Rosholm, Michael, 2003. "Dropping out of School? A Competing Risks Analysis of Young Immigrants’ Progress in the Educational System," IZA Discussion Papers 918, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Wydra-Somaggio, Gabriele, 2017. "Early termination of vocational training: dropout or stopout?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201703, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Pål Børing, 2010. "Gamma Unobserved Heterogeneity and Duration Bias," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    limited duration model; Medical students; student dropout (non-completion) probabilities; discrete time hazard; survival analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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