Swedish Labor Market Training and the Duration of Unemployment
The vocational employment training program is the most ambitious and expensive training program in Sweden and a cornerstone of labor market policy. We analyze causal effects on the individual transition rate from unemployment to employment by exploiting variation in the timing of treatment and outcome, dealing with selectivity on unobservables. We demonstrate the appropriateness of this approach in our context by studying the assignment. We also develop a model allowing for duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity (leading to spurious duration dependence) in the treatment effect, and we prove non-parametric identification. The data cover the population and include multiple unemployment spells for many individuals. The results indicate a large significantly positive effect on exit to work shortly after exiting the program. The effect at the individual level diminishes after some weeks. When taking account of the time spent in the program, the effect on the mean unemployment duration is often close to zero.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2006|
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- Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2003. "Analyzing the Effect of Dynamically Assigned Treatments Using Duration Models, Binary Treatment Models, and Panel Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 831, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000.
"Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations,"
9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- Geert Ridder, 1990. "The Non-Parametric Identification of Generalized Accelerated Failure-Time Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 167-181.
- Robert G. Fay, 1996. "Enhancing the Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Programme Evaluations in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
- James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber, 1994. "Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Regner, Hakan, 2002. "A nonexperimental evaluation of training programs for the unemployed in Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-206, April.
- Matz Dahlberg & Anders Forslund, 2005. "Direct Displacement Effects of Labour Market Programmes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(3), pages 475-494, 09.
- Brännäs, Kurt, 2000.
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Umeå Economic Studies
521, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Brännäs, Kurt, 2000. "Estimation in a Duration Model for Evaluating Educational Programs," IZA Discussion Papers 103, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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