IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp14860.html

A Demand-Oriented Approach to Health Care Capacity Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Wende, Danny

    (Dresden University of Technology)

  • Kopetsch, Thomas

    (affiliation not available)

  • Richter, Wolfram F.

    (TU Dortmund)

Abstract

The planning practice of health care capacities suffers from sectoral and regional constraints and it remains difficult to ensure an equal access for patients. Moreover, standard planning approaches lack the choice-theoretic grounding necessary for making reliable predictions of the demand and competition for supplied care. This paper presents a general equilibrium model designed to overcome such shortcomings. The derived metric of access to care is demand-oriented measuring the time patients waste seeking treatment. It contrasts with the usual metrics based on the floating catchment area (FCA) method, which suffer from supply bias and ad hoc specification. The approach is illustrated using Germany as an example. Much in line with official planning figures, overcapacities are shown to exist in all specialities. However, a closer look at the data provides a differentiated picture. Overcapacities are typical for urban regions and they go hand in hand with supply deficits in rural areas, albeit to a specialty-specific extent. In smaller towns, the supply is more in line with demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Wende, Danny & Kopetsch, Thomas & Richter, Wolfram F., 2021. "A Demand-Oriented Approach to Health Care Capacity Planning," IZA Discussion Papers 14860, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14860
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp14860.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sá, Luís & Siciliani, Luigi & Straume, Odd Rune, 2019. "Dynamic hospital competition under rationing by waiting times," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 260-282.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    4. J A Bikker & A F de Vos, 1992. "A Regional Supply and Demand Model for Inpatient Hospital Care," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 24(8), pages 1097-1116, August.
    5. Thomas Kopetsch & Hendrik Schmitz, 2014. "Regional Variation In The Utilisation Of Ambulatory Services In Germany," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(12), pages 1481-1492, December.
    6. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    7. Tomoko Ono & Gaétan Lafortune & Michael Schoenstein, 2013. "Health Workforce Planning in OECD Countries: A Review of 26 Projection Models from 18 Countries," OECD Health Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    8. Amartya Sen, 2002. "Why health equity?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(8), pages 659-666, December.
    9. Stephen J. Redding, 2010. "The Empirics Of New Economic Geography," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 297-311, February.
    10. Joseph, Alun E. & Bantock, Peter R., 1982. "Measuring potential physical accessibility to general practitioners in rural areas: A method and case study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 85-90, January.
    11. Tugba Büyükdurmus & Thomas Kopetsch & Hendrik Schmitz & Harald Tauchmann, 2017. "On the interdependence of ambulatory and hospital care in the German health system," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    12. Gerhard Fülöp & Thomas Kopetsch & Pascal Schöpe, 2011. "Catchment areas of medical practices and the role played by geographical distance in the patient’s choice of doctor," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 46(3), pages 691-706, June.
    13. Lindsay, Cotton M & Feigenbaum, Bernard, 1984. "Rationing by Waiting Lists," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 404-417, June.
    14. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wende, Danny & Kopetsch, Thomas & Richter, Wolfram F., 2020. "Planning health care capacities with a gravity equation," Ruhr Economic Papers 888, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Anna-Theresa Renner & Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2020. "Modeling inter-regional patient mobility: Does distance go far enough?," Economics working papers 2020-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    4. Jacqueline Karlsson & Helena Melin & Kevin Cullinane, 2018. "The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: an application of the gravity model," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Shahriar Kabir & Ruhul Salim, 2016. "Can A Common Currency Induce Intra-Regional Trade? The Southeast Asian Perspective," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 218-234, November.
    6. J.A. Bikker, 2009. "An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade," Working Papers 09-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
    7. Pamela Smith & Xiangwen Kong, 2022. "Intellectual property rights and trade: The exceptional case of GMOs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 763-811, March.
    8. Tripathi, Sabyasachi & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "India’s Trade and Gravity Model: A Static and Dynamic Panel Data," MPRA Paper 45502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    10. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    12. Cristina Di Stefano & P. Lelio Iapadre & Ilaria Salvati, 2021. "Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-15, January.
    13. Fracasso, Andrea, 2014. "A gravity model of virtual water trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 215-228.
    14. Tamaş Anca, 2020. "Why should the gravity model be taught in business education?," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 422-433, July.
    15. Doganay, Seda Meyveci & Sayek, Selin & Taskin, Fatma, 2014. "Is environmental efficiency trade inducing or trade hindering?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 340-349.
    16. Xavier Cirera & Francesca Foliano & Michael Gasiorek, 2016. "The impact of preferences on developing countries’ exports to the European Union: bilateral gravity modelling at the product level," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 59-102, February.
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yoto Yotov & Mario Larch & James Anderson, 2015. "Growth and Trade: A Structural Estimation Framework," 2015 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Stephen R. Cray & Antoine Gervais, 2023. "Increasing Marginal Costs, Firm Heterogeneity,and the Gains from "Deep" International Trade Agreements," Cahiers de recherche 23-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    20. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Estimation of gravity-equation coefficients, elasticities of substitution, and general equilibrium comparative statics under asymmetric bilateral trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 110-121.
    21. Bo Xiong & Sixia Chen, 2014. "Estimating gravity equation models in the presence of sample selection and heteroscedasticity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2993-3003, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.