Sobreapreciação Cambial no Brasil: Estimativa, Causas e Consequências (1994-2008)
Neste artigo, analisa-se, empiricamente, o desalinhamento cambial no Brasil no período entre 1994 e o início de 2008, explorando suas causas e consequências. O método utilizado foi ajustar a taxa de câmbio pelos fundamentos econômicos. As estimações levaram a uma taxa de câmbio esperada de longo prazo e os desvios da taxa de câmbio corrente em relação a esta possibilitaram o cálculo do desalinhamento cambial no Brasil. Observa-se que a taxa de câmbio esteve sobreapreciada durante quase todo o período estudado e foi mais intensa após o primeiro trimestre de 2005. A pesquisa discute, ainda, as principais causas do desalinhamento cambial no Brasil, com foco no período mais recente. Quanto às causas, destacam-se os motivos ligados aos influxos via conta de capital e financeira, a elevada taxa de juros interna e o controle da inflação. O artigo discute, por fim, as consequências da sobreapreciação cambial para a economia brasileira, destacando os efeitos negativos sobre a indústria, o saldo em transações correntes e a estrutura da balança comercial. This article analyzes the exchange rate misalignment in Brazil in the period between 1994 and the early 2008, exploring its causes and consequences. The method used was to adjust the exchange rate according to the economic fundamentals. The estimations led to an expected long-term exchange rate, and the deviations of the current exchange rate in relation to the estimations allowed the calculation of the exchange rate misalignment in Brazil. This shows that the exchange rate was overvalued along almost the entire period of study, and that it was more intense after the first quarter of 2005. The article also discusses the main causes of the exchange rate misalignment in Brazil, focusing on the recent period. In this regard, the factors that stand out are related to the inflows via capital and financial account, to the high domestic interest rate and to the administration of inflation. Finally, the article discusses the consequences of the overvalued exchange rate by the Brazilian economy, highlighting the negative effects on the industry, on the balance of current account and on the trade balance structure.
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