IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/pbrief/pb13-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Z. Lawrence

    (Harvard University and Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Lawrence Edwards

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract

International factors, such as the dramatic increase in imports from emerging-market economies, especially China, have been widely blamed for the decline in manufacturing employment in the United States over the past decade. The authors argue, however, that far more important in causing that decline has been the slow overall growth in US employment and powerful historical forces that have affected all advanced economies: a combination of rapid productivity growth and demand that is relatively unresponsive to income growth and lower prices. To be sure, US manufacturing employment can grow in the short run. The labor content of the US manufacturing trade deficit remains significant and a vigorous US and global economic recovery could boost US manufacturing employment. Over the long run, however, absent new product innovations, or a shift in consumer preferences, the basic forces leading to declining manufacturing employment are unlikely to abate.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edwards, 2013. "US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience," Policy Briefs PB13-27, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb13-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/us-employment-deindustrialization-insights-history-and-international
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    2. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan & Shannon Phillips, 2022. "Estimating The Impact Of Trade And Offshoring On American Workers Using The Current Population Surveys," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 12, pages 275-289, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2018. "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 761-796.
    6. Shushanik Hakobyan & John McLaren, 2016. "Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 728-741, October.
    7. Nordhaus William D, 2008. "Baumol's Diseases: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, February.
    8. Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Unconditional Convergence," NBER Working Papers 17546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. William Nordhaus, 2005. "The Sources of the Productivity Rebound and the Manufacturing Employment Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 11354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2013. "Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 5003, October.
    11. Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Peter K. Schott, 2002. "U.S. Imports, Exports, and Tariff Data, 1989-2001," NBER Working Papers 9387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Laihui & An, Suxia, 2023. "Deindustrialization and the incidence of poverty: Empirical evidence from developing countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. James Bessen, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: The Role of Demand," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 291-307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2020. "China, Like the US, Faces Challenges in Achieving Inclusive Growth through Manufacturing," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(2), pages 3-17, March.
    4. Hansjörg Herr & Bea Ruoff, 2018. "Insufficient Economic Convergence in the World Economy: How Do Economists Explain Why Too Many Countries Do Not Catch-up?," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, April.
    5. Cáceres, Luis René, 2017. "Deindustrialization and economic stagnation in El Salvador," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Juan Esteban Carranza & Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas & Camila Casas & Alejandra Ximena Gonzalez-Ramirez & Stefany Moreno-Burbano & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Juan Sebastián Vélez-Velásquez, 2018. "La industria colombiana en el siglo XXI," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 87, pages 1-69, November.
    7. Murat A. Yülek, 2017. "On the Middle Income Trap, the Industrialization Process and Appropriate Industrial Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 325-348, September.
    8. Takatoshi Sasaki & Tomoya Sakata & Yui Mukoyama & Koichi Yoshino, 2021. "China's Long-Term Growth Potential: Can Productivity Convergence Be Sustained?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    9. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2017. "Recent Manufacturing Employment Growth: The Exception That Proves the Rule," NBER Working Papers 24151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ghulam, Yaseen, 2021. "Institutions and firms’ technological changes and productivity growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    12. Susan N. Houseman & Brad J. Hershbein, 2018. "Understanding the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment," Upjohn Working Papers 18-287, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    13. Herr, Hansjörg, 2018. "Underdevelopment and unregulated markets: Seven reasons why unregulated markets reproduce underdevelopment," IPE Working Papers 103/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    14. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2017. "Recent US Manufacturing Employment: The Exception that Proves the Rule," Working Paper Series WP17-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    15. Armando J. Garcia Pires & José Pedro Pontes, 2021. "(De)Industrialization, Technology and Transportation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 527-538, July.
    16. Ghulam Yahya Khan & Salik Mehboob & Lydia Bares Lopez, 2018. "Deindustrialization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 462-475, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campbell, Douglas L., 2020. "Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Leopoldo Gòmez-Ramírez & Marí­a Padilla-Romo, 2021. "Some Benefit, Some Are Left Behind: NAFTA and Educational Attainment in the United States," Working Papers 2021-02, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    3. Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 47-72, Spring.
    4. Kondo, Illenin O., 2018. "Trade-induced displacements and local labor market adjustments in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 180-202.
    5. Céline CARRERE & Marco FUGAZZA & Marcelo OLARREAGA & Frédéric ROBERT-NICOUD, 2014. "Trade in Unemployment," Working Papers P101, FERDI.
    6. Mestieri, Martí & Basco, Sergi & Smagghue, Gabriel & Liegey, Maxime, 2020. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Trade across Occupations: A Test of the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem," CEPR Discussion Papers 15186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Patrick Arni & Peter H. Egger & Katharina Erhardt & Matthias Gubler & Philip Sauré, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," CESifo Working Paper Series 11041, CESifo.
    8. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    10. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Erik Loualiche & Matthew Plosser & Julien Sauvagnat, 2022. "Import Competition and Household Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3037-3091, December.
    11. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    12. Leopoldo Gómez‐Ramírez & María Padilla‐Romo, 2022. "Some benefit, some are left behind: NAFTA and educational attainment in the United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1581-1606, October.
    13. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from US Counties," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 47-64, March.
    14. McManus, T. Clay & Schaur, Georg, 2016. "The effects of import competition on worker health," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 160-172.
    15. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Cristina Tello-Trillo, 2022. "Trade Liberalization and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US Matched Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 22-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    17. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    18. Keller, Wolfgang & Utar, Hale, 2023. "International trade and job polarization: Evidence at the worker level," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Campbell, Douglas L. & Lusher, Lester, 2019. "The impact of real exchange rate shocks on manufacturing workers: An autopsy from the MORG," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 12-28.
    20. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb13-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peterson Institute webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.