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Conditional Universal Consistency

  • Fudenberg, Drew
  • Levine, David

Players choose an action before learning an outcome chosen according to an unknown and history-dependent stochastic rule. Procedures that categorize outcomes, and use a randomized variation on fictitious play within each category are studied. These procedures are “conditionally consistent:†they yield almost as high a time-average payoff as if the player knew the conditional distributions of actions given categories. Moreover, given any alternative procedure, there is a conditionally consistent procedure whose performance is no more than epsilon worse regardless of the discount factor. We also discuss cycles, and argue that the time-average of play should resemble a correlated equilibrium.

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File URL: http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3204826/fudenberg_conditional.pdf
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Paper provided by Harvard University Department of Economics in its series Scholarly Articles with number 3204826.

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Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Games and Economic Behavior
Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3204826
Contact details of provider: Postal: Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA 02138
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Fax: 617-495-7730
Web page: http://www.economics.harvard.edu/

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  1. Ehud Kalai, 1995. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Discussion Papers 1144, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Fudenberg, D. & Kreps, D.M., 1992. "Learning Mixed Equilibria," Working papers 92-13, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K, 1993. "Self-Confirming Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 523-45, May.
  4. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 1996. "A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 200, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 1996.
  5. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "An Easier Way to Calibrate," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 131-137, October.
  6. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh, 1999. "Regret in the On-Line Decision Problem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 7-35, October.
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  8. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh V., 1997. "Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 40-55, October.
  9. M. Aoyagi, 2010. "Evolution of Beliefs and the Nash Equilibrium of a Normal Form Game," Levine's Working Paper Archive 562, David K. Levine.
  10. T.H. Chung, 2010. "Approximate Methods for Sequential Decision Making Using Expert Advice," Levine's Working Paper Archive 564, David K. Levine.
  11. Nimrod Megiddo, 1979. "On Repeated Games with Incomplete Information Played by Non-Bayesian Players," Discussion Papers 373, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  12. P. Auer & N. Cesa-Bianchi & Y. Freund & R. Schapire, 2010. "Gambling in a rigged casino: The adversarial multi-armed bandit problem," Levine's Working Paper Archive 462, David K. Levine.
  13. Aoyagi, Masaki, 1996. "Evolution of Beliefs and the Nash Equilibrium of Normal Form Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 444-469, August.
  14. M. Feder & N. Mehrav & M. Gutman, 2010. "Universal Prediction of Individual Sequences," Levine's Working Paper Archive 567, David K. Levine.
  15. Sonsino, Doron, 1997. "Learning to Learn, Pattern Recognition, and Nash Equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 286-331, February.
  16. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1998. "Learning in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 631-639, May.
  17. D. Blackwell, 2010. "Controlled Random Walks," Levine's Working Paper Archive 465, David K. Levine.
  18. Y. Freund & R. Schapire, 2010. "A Decision Theoretic Generalization of On-Line Learning and an Application to Boosting," Levine's Working Paper Archive 570, David K. Levine.
  19. Jordan J. S., 1993. "Three Problems in Learning Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 368-386, July.
  20. N. Megiddo, 2010. "On Repeated Games with Incomplete Information Played with Non-Bayesian Players," Levine's Working Paper Archive 480, David K. Levine.
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