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An Easier Way to Calibrate

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  • Fudenberg, Drew
  • Levine, David K.

Abstract

Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “ K -initialized myopic strategies†are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first “initialize†by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t , the minmax strategy in a static game.
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Suggested Citation

  • Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "An Easier Way to Calibrate," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 131-137, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:29:y:1999:i:1-2:p:131-137
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1999. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 151-169, October.
    2. D. Blackwell, 2010. "Controlled Random Walks," Levine's Working Paper Archive 465, David K. Levine.
    3. Foster, Dean P., 1999. "A Proof of Calibration via Blackwell's Approachability Theorem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 73-78, October.
    4. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2013. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading To Correlated Equilibrium," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Simple Adaptive Strategies From Regret-Matching to Uncoupled Dynamics, chapter 2, pages 17-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 104-130, October.
    6. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1995. "Consistency and cautious fictitious play," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1065-1089.
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    Citations

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    1. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh, 1999. "Regret in the On-Line Decision Problem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 7-35, October.
    2. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 104-130, October.
    3. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1999. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 151-169, October.
    4. Yossi Feinberg & Nicolas Lambert, 2015. "Mostly calibrated," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 44(1), pages 153-163, February.
    5. Foster, Dean P., 1999. "A Proof of Calibration via Blackwell's Approachability Theorem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 73-78, October.
    6. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2006. "Strategic Manipulation of Empirical Tests," Discussion Papers 1425, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    7. Dean Foster & Rakesh Vohra, 2011. "Calibration: Respice, Adspice, Prospice," Discussion Papers 1537, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    8. Foster, Dean P. & Young, H. Peyton, 2003. "Learning, hypothesis testing, and Nash equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 73-96, October.
    9. Dean P. Foster & Sergiu Hart, 2021. "Forecast Hedging and Calibration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3447-3490.
    10. David Lagziel & Ehud Lehrer, 2024. "Performance cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(4), pages 999-1024, June.
    11. Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Jonathan Weinstein, 2008. "Comparative Testing of Experts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(3), pages 541-559, May.
    12. Shie Mannor & Gilles Stoltz, 2009. "A Geometric Proof of Calibration," Working Papers hal-00442042, HAL.
    13. Olszewski, Wojciech, 2015. "Calibration and Expert Testing," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
    14. Aukutsionek, Sergei P. & Belianin, Alexis V., 2001. "Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 661-692, October.
    15. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2011. "Falsifiability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 788-818, April.
    16. Al-Najjar, Nabil I. & Sandroni, Alvaro & Smorodinsky, Rann & Weinstein, Jonathan, 2010. "Testing theories with learnable and predictive representations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2203-2217, November.
    17. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2008. "Manipulability of Future-Independent Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1437-1466, November.
    18. Sylvain Chassang, 2013. "Calibrated Incentive Contracts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 1935-1971, September.
    19. Wojciech Olszewski & Marcin Pęski, 2011. "The Principal-Agent Approach to Testing Experts," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 89-113, May.
    20. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2009. "Strategic Manipulation of Empirical Tests," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 57-70, February.
    21. Mannor, Shie & Shimkin, Nahum, 2008. "Regret minimization in repeated matrix games with variable stage duration," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 227-258, May.
    22. Alvaro Sandroni & Wojciech Olszewski, 2008. "Falsifiability," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    23. Shie Mannor & Gilles Stoltz, 2010. "A Geometric Proof of Calibration," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 721-727, November.
    24. Alvaro Sandroni & Rann Smorodinsky & Rakesh V. Vohra, 2003. "Calibration with Many Checking Rules," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 141-153, February.

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