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An Easier Way to Calibrate

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  • Fudenberg, Drew
  • Levine, David K.

Abstract

Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “ K-initialized myopic strategies†are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first “initialize†by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t , the minmax strategy in a static game.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WFW-45GMDYD-7/2/875dda12659642ac5061d4452b026dcb
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Games and Economic Behavior.

Volume (Year): 29 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (October)
Pages: 131-137

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Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:29:y:1999:i:1-2:p:131-137
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622836

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  1. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 104-130, October.
  2. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2000. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
  3. D. Blackwell, 2010. "Controlled Random Walks," Levine's Working Paper Archive 465, David K. Levine.
  4. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1996. "Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play," Levine's Working Paper Archive 470, David K. Levine.
  5. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1999. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 151-169, October.
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Cited by:

  1. Wojciech Olszewski & Marcin Pęski, 2011. "The Principal-Agent Approach to Testing Experts," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 89-113, May.
  2. Alvaro Sandroni & Wojciech Olszewski, 2008. "Manipulability of Future-Independent Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-014, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Dean Foster & Rakesh Vohra, 2011. "Calibration: Respice, Adspice, Prospice," Discussion Papers 1537, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 104-130, October.
  5. Alvaro Sandroni & Wojciech Olszewski, 2008. "Falsifiability," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. Shie Mannor & Gilles Stoltz, 2009. "A Geometric Proof of Calibration," Working Papers hal-00442042, HAL.
  7. Aukutsionek, Sergei P. & Belianin, Alexis V., 2001. "Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 661-692, October.
  8. Peyton Young, 2002. "Learning Hypothesis Testing and Nash Equilibrium," Economics Working Paper Archive 474, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  9. Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Jonathan Weinstein, 2008. "Comparative Testing of Experts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(3), pages 541-559, 05.
  10. Mannor, Shie & Shimkin, Nahum, 2008. "Regret minimization in repeated matrix games with variable stage duration," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 227-258, May.
  11. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2011. "Falsifiability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 788-818, April.
  12. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2006. "Strategic Manipulation of Empirical Tests," Discussion Papers 1425, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  13. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh, 1999. "Regret in the On-Line Decision Problem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 7-35, October.
  14. Al-Najjar, Nabil I. & Sandroni, Alvaro & Smorodinsky, Rann & Weinstein, Jonathan, 2010. "Testing theories with learnable and predictive representations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2203-2217, November.

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