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An Easier Way to Calibrate

  • Fudenberg, Drew
  • Levine, David K.

Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “ K-initialized myopic strategies†are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first “initialize†by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t , the minmax strategy in a static game.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WFW-45GMDYD-7/2/875dda12659642ac5061d4452b026dcb
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Games and Economic Behavior.

Volume (Year): 29 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (October)
Pages: 131-137

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Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:29:y:1999:i:1-2:p:131-137
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622836

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  1. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 104-130, October.
  2. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2000. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
  3. D. Blackwell, 2010. "Controlled Random Walks," Levine's Working Paper Archive 465, David K. Levine.
  4. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1996. "Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play," Levine's Working Paper Archive 470, David K. Levine.
  5. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1999. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 151-169, October.
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