Non-Bayesian Testing of a Stochastic Prediction
We propose a method to test a prediction of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian, non-parametric setting, a predicted distribution is tested using a realization of the stochastic process. A test associates a set of realizations for each predicted distribution, on which the prediction passes, so that if there are no type I errors, a prediction assigns probability 1 to its test set. Nevertheless, these test sets can be "small", in the sense that "most" distributions assign it probability 0, and hence there are "few" type II errors. It is also shown that there exists such a test that cannot be manipulated, in the sense that an uninformed predictor, who is pretending to know the true distribution, is guaranteed to fail on an uncountable number of realizations, no matter what randomized prediction he employs. The notion of a small set we use is category I, described in more detail in the paper. Copyright 2006, Wiley-Blackwell.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 73 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1995.
"Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play,"
3198694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 1996.
"A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium,"
Economics Working Papers
200, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 1996.
- Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2000. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
- Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 1997. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Game Theory and Information 9703006, EconWPA, revised 24 Mar 1997.
- S. Hart & A. Mas-Collel, 2010. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 572, David K. Levine.
- Lehrer, Ehud, 2001. "Any Inspection Is Manipulable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1333-47, September.
- Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 1999.
"A general class of adaptative strategies,"
Economics Working Papers
373, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1999.
"Conditional Universal Consistency,"
3204826, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sandroni, Alvaro & Smorodinsky, Rann, 2004. "Belief-based equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 157-171, April.
- Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer & Rann Smorodinsky, 2010.
"Calibrated Forecasting and Merging,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
584, David K. Levine.
- Ehud Kalai, 1995. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Discussion Papers 1144R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Ehud Kalai, 1995. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Discussion Papers 1144, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh V., 1997. "Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 40-55, October.
- Anderson Robert M. & Zame William R., 2001. "Genericity with Infinitely Many Parameters," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-64, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:4:p:893-906. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.