Nonmanipulable Bayesian Testing
This paper considers the problem of testing an expert who makes probabilistic forecasts about the outcomes of a stochastic process. I show that, under general conditions on the tester's prior, a likelihood test can distinguish informed from uninformed experts with high prior probability. The test rejects informed experts on data-generating processes where the tester quickly learns the true probabilities by updating her prior. However, the set of processes on which informed experts are rejected is topologically small. These results contrast sharply with many negative results in the literature.
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