Calibrated Forecasting and Merging
Consider a general finite-state stochastic process governed by an unknown objective probability distribution. A forecaster, observing the system, assigns subjective probabilities to future states. The subjective forecast merges to the objective distribution if, with time, forecasted probabilities converge to the (unknown) correct probabilities. The forecast is calibrated if observed long-run empirical distributions coincide with their forecasted probabilities. This paper links the unobserved reliability of forecasts to their observed empirical performance by showing full equilvalents between notions of merging and calibration.
|Date of creation:||Dec 1995|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, Northwestern University, 580 Jacobs Center, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208-2014|
Web page: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dov Monderer & Dov Samet & Aner Sela, 1994.
"Belief Affirming in Learning Processes,"
Game Theory and Information
9408002, EconWPA, revised 11 Aug 1994.
- Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 1997.
"A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium,"
Game Theory and Information
9703006, EconWPA, revised 24 Mar 1997.
- Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2000. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
- S. Hart & A. Mas-Collel, 2010. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 572, David K. Levine.
- Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 1996. "A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 200, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 1996.
- Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1992.
"Weak and Strong Merging of Opinions,"
983, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh V., 1997. "Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 40-55, October.
- Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Merging Economic Forecasts," Discussion Papers 1035, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fran Walker)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.