An Easier Way to Calibrate
Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that â€œ K-initialized myopic strategiesâ€ are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first â€œinitializeâ€ by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t , the minmax strategy in a static game.
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3204826, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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