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An Easier Way to Calibrate

  • Fudenberg, Drew
  • Levine, David

Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “ K-initialized myopic strategies†are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first “initialize†by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t , the minmax strategy in a static game.

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File URL: http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3203773/fudenberg_calibrate.pdf
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Paper provided by Harvard University Department of Economics in its series Scholarly Articles with number 3203773.

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Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Games and Economic Behavior
Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3203773
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  1. D. Blackwell, 2010. "Controlled Random Walks," Levine's Working Paper Archive 465, David K. Levine.
  2. Ehud Kalai, 1995. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Discussion Papers 1144R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1997. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Levine's Working Paper Archive 471, David K. Levine.
  4. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 1996. "A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 200, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 1996.
  5. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1995. "Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play," Scholarly Articles 3198694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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