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A Forward Calibration Method for New Quantitative Trade Models

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  • Pothen, Frank
  • Hübler, Michael

Abstract

This article introduces an innovative and exible dynamic forward calibration method for disaggregated new quantitative trade models, particularly the Eaton and Kortum model, within a computable general equilibrium framework. The model is parameterized based on distinct, consistent future development scenario assumptions about EU climate policy, economic growth, energy efficiency, the electricity mix and structural change (sectoral shifts) derived through a complex scenario-creation process. The model equations and the scenario assumptions are implemented as side constraints of an optimization problem minimizing the difference between historical and targeted technology levels (sectoral productivities). This method is combined with input-output data disaggregation methods to separate Northwest Germany from the rest of Germany and to represent different power generation technologies. This setup enables the comparison of alternative regional sustainability-oriented long-term policy pathways. Despite the importance of the policy pathways envisaged by Northwest Germany's governments to society, they have limited macroeconomic effects in the simulations. In contrast, the future development scenario assumptions significantly affect European economies, particularly via the EU climate policy costs that drastically increase towards 2050. If Northwest Germany's energy transition fails, then its climate policy costs will increase extraordinarily.

Suggested Citation

  • Pothen, Frank & Hübler, Michael, 2018. "A Forward Calibration Method for New Quantitative Trade Models," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-643, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Humer & Vanessa Lechinger & Eva Six, 2021. "Ökosoziale Steuerreform: Aufkommens- und Verteilungswirkungen," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 207, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    2. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Flachsland, Christian & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael, 2019. "Optionen für eine CO₂-Preisreform," Working Papers 04/2019, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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