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Croissance potentielle : la politique économique au royaume des aveugles ?

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  • Jacques Le Cacheux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

La crise a révélé les insuffisances graves de la théorie macroéconomique dominante et des conceptions de politique macroéconomique qu'elle inspire. Le cadre analytique dans lequel raisonnent la plupart des macroéconomistes, celui qui guide les institutions nationales, européennes et internationales dans leurs orientations, est intrinsèquement inapte à rendre compte des évolutions structurelles d'une économie financiarisée et en profonde mutation. Les concepts-clés qui en sont les fondements induisent des choix d'indicateurs fournissant des signaux erronés. Les grandeurs macroéconomiques standards sur lesquelles se fondent les politiques économiques se sont vidées de leur sens, mais constituent néanmoins toujours les piliers des diagnostics. Refonder la macroéconomie est une urgence ; mais les ébauches actuellement offertes ne sont pas à la hauteur des défis. POTENTIAL GROWTH: ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE KINGDOM OF THE BLIND The 2009 crisis has shed a crude light on the deep shortcomings of standard macroeconomic theory and of its representation of the workings of macroeconomic policy. The analytical framework in which most macroeconomists reason, the one that guides national, European, and international institutions' orientations, is intrinsically unable to deliver insights on the structural evolutions of economies that are massively intertwined with finance and in perpetual technological change. The key concepts on which this framework is built lead to the choice of indicators that generate misleading signals. Standard macroeconomic aggregates guiding economic policies have been losing their meaning, but continue to be relied upon when forming a diagnosis on national economies. Rebuilding macroeconomic theory on new foundations is urgent; but the avenues that are being explored currently are far from providing adequate answers.

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  • Jacques Le Cacheux, 2017. "Croissance potentielle : la politique économique au royaume des aveugles ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01880317, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01880317
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-pau.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01880317
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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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