IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/halshs-04431902.html

How Early Career Choices Adjust to Economic Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Grenet

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Hans Grönqvist

    (Linnaeus University, IFN - Research Insitute of Industrial Economics)

  • Edvin Hertegård

    (Stockholm University)

  • Martin Nybom

    (Uppsala University)

  • Jan Stuhler

    (UC3M - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid = University of Carlos III of Madrid)

Abstract

We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises, and how this behavioral response affects their long-run labor market outcomes. We specifically examine the context of the severe recession that struck Sweden in the early 1990s, which disproportionally affected the manufacturing and construction sectors. We find that students who experienced paternal job loss in these heavily affected sectors were more likely to choose high school programs linked to sectors less impacted by the recession. As a result, these individuals achieved better labor market outcomes in adulthood, including higher employment rates and career earnings. Our findings are consistent with informational frictions being a key obstacle to structural change, and we identify career choice as an important mechanism through which recessions reshape labor markets in the very long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Grenet & Hans Grönqvist & Edvin Hertegård & Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2024. "How Early Career Choices Adjust to Economic Crises," PSE Working Papers halshs-04431902, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04431902
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04431902v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04431902v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julien Grenet & Hans Grönqvist & Daniel Jahnson, 2023. "Financial Crisis and Long-Run Labor Demand: Evidence from the Swedish Banking Crisis in the Early 90s," Working Papers halshs-03920377, HAL.
    2. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    3. Dan A. Black & Terra G. McKinnish & Seth G. Sanders, 2005. "Tight Labor Markets and the Demand for Education: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 59(1), pages 3-16, October.
    4. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 17(Nov), pages 2-20.
    5. Justine Hastings & Christopher A. Neilson & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2015. "The Effects of Earnings Disclosure on College Enrollment Decisions," Working Papers 2015-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Francisco M. Gonzalez & Shouyong Shi, 2010. "An Equilibrium Theory of Learning, Search, and Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 509-537, March.
    7. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
    8. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    9. Michèle Belot & Philipp Kircher & Paul Muller, 2019. "Providing Advice to Jobseekers at Low Cost: An Experimental Study on Online Advice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1411-1447.
    10. Samuel Bentolila & Marcel Jansen & Gabriel Jiménez, 2018. "When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 650-695.
    11. Bingley, Paul & Cappellari, Lorenzo & Ovidi, Marco, 2023. "When It Hurts the Most: Timing of Parental Job Loss and a Child's Education," IZA Discussion Papers 16367, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Huttunen, Kristiina & Riukula, Krista, 2024. "Parental job loss and children’s career choices," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Mörk, Eva & Sjögren, Anna & Svaleryd, Helena, 2020. "Consequences of parental job loss on the family environment and on human capital formation-Evidence from workplace closures," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    15. Philip Oreopoulos & Marianne Page & Ann Huff Stevens, 2008. "The Intergenerational Effects of Worker Displacement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(3), pages 455-483, July.
    16. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2016. "Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 3-17.
    17. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
    18. Pedro Carneiro & Kjell Salvanes & Barton Willage & Alexander Willén, 2023. "Childhood Shocks Across Ages and Human Capital Formation," Working Papers 2023-018, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    19. Catherine Haeck & Jean-William Laliberté, 2025. "Careers and Intergenerational Income Mobility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 431-458, January.
    20. Mari Rege & Kjetil Telle & Mark Votruba, 2011. "Parental Job Loss and Children's School Performance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(4), pages 1462-1489.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dagorn, Etienne & Moulin, Léonard, 2025. "Dropping out of university in response to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. Etienne Dagorn & Elena Claudia Meroni & Léonard Moulin, 2025. "Shifting preferences: COVID-19 and higher education application," Post-Print hal-05198490, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grenet, Juliet & Grönqvist, Hans & Hertegård, Edvin & Nybom, Martin & Stuhler, Jan, 2025. "How Early Career Choices Adjust to Economic Crises," Working Paper Series 1545, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    2. Eskelinen, Niko & Jernström, Laura & Salokangas, Henri, 2025. "Parental Job Loss and Children’s Socioeconomic Disadvantage," SocArXiv bs3fd_v1, Center for Open Science.
    3. Ubaldi Michele & Picchio Matteo, 2025. "Intergenerational Scars: The Impact of Parental Unemployment on Individual Health Later in Life," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 35-70.
    4. Kjell G. Salvanes & Barton Willage & Alexander Willén, 2024. "The Effect of Labor Market Shocks across the Life Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 121-160.
    5. Patrick Bennett & Amine Ouazad, 2020. "Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence from Danish Microdata and Reforms [The Link between Human Capital, Mass Layoffs, and Firm Deaths]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2182-2220.
    6. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Marco Ovidi, 2023. "When it hurts the most: timing of parental job loss and a child’s education," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-12, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    7. Sato, Kazuma, 2025. "Intergenerational associations between paternal job loss and children's educational attainment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Patrick Bennett, 2021. "The Work-To-School Transition: Job Displacement and Skill Upgrading among Young High School Dropouts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9417, CESifo.
    9. S. Filiz, 2016. "Mothers’ Involuntary Job Loss and Children’s Academic Achievement," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 98-127, March.
    10. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Christian Posso & Jorge Tamayo, 2021. "Job Loss, Credit, and Crime in Colombia," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 97-114, March.
    11. Mari, Gabriele & Keizer, Renske & van Gaalen, Ruben, 2022. "The Timing of Parental Unemployment, Insurance, and Children's Education," SocArXiv 7rm6g, Center for Open Science.
    12. Mari, Gabriele & Keizer, Renske, 2020. "Parental job loss and early child development in the Great Recession," SocArXiv 2596e, Center for Open Science.
    13. Martti Kaila & Emily Nix & Krista Riukula, 2021. "Disparate Impacts of Job Loss by Parental Income and Implications for Intergenerational Mobility," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Mörk, Eva & Sjögren, Anna & Svaleryd, Helena, 2019. "Consequences of Parental Job Loss on the Family Environment and on Human Capital Formation: Evidence from Plant Closures," IZA Discussion Papers 12559, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Marcus Eliason, 2012. "Lost jobs, broken marriages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 1365-1397, October.
    16. Jandarova, Nurfatima, 2025. "Does intelligence shield children from the effects of parental non-employment?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    17. Mörk, Eva & Sjögren, Anna & Svaleryd, Helena, 2020. "Consequences of parental job loss on the family environment and on human capital formation-Evidence from workplace closures," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Mörk, Eva & Sjögren, Anna & Svaleryd, Helena, 2019. "Parental job loss and child human capital in the short and long run," Working Paper Series 2019:3, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    19. Di Maio, Michele & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "The effect of parental job loss on child school dropout: Evidence from the Occupied Palestinian Territories," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Kukla-Acevedo, Sharon & Heflin, Colleen M., 2014. "Unemployment insurance effects on child academic outcomes: Results from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(P3), pages 246-252.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04431902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.