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Tight Labor Markets and the Demand for Education: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust

Author

Listed:
  • Dan A. Black
  • Terra G. McKinnish
  • Seth G. Sanders

Abstract

Human capital theory predicts that individuals acquire less schooling when the returns to schooling are small. To test this theory, the authors study the effect of the Appalachian coal boom on high school enrollments. During the 1970s, a boom in the coal industry increased the earnings of high school dropouts relative to those of graduates. During the 1980s, the boom subsided and the earnings of dropouts declined relative to those of graduates. The authors find that high school enrollment rates in Kentucky and Pennsylvania declined considerably in the 1970s and increased in the 1980s in coal-producing counties relative to counties without coal. The estimates indicate that a long-term 10% increase in the earnings of low-skilled workers could decrease high school enrollment rates by as much as 5–7%—a finding with implications for policies aimed at improving low-skilled workers' employment and earnings, such as wage subsidies and minimum wage increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan A. Black & Terra G. McKinnish & Seth G. Sanders, 2005. "Tight Labor Markets and the Demand for Education: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 59(1), pages 3-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:59:y:2005:i:1:p:3-16
    DOI: 10.1177/001979390505900101
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dan Black & Kermit Daniel & Seth Sanders, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Conditions on Participation in Disability Programs: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 27-50, March.
    2. Rees, Daniel I. & Mocan, H. Naci, 1997. "Labor market conditions and the high school dropout rate: Evidence from New York State," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 103-109, April.
    3. Beverly Duncan, 1965. "Dropouts and the Unemployed," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 121-121.
    4. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "Why the United States Led in Education: Lessons from Secondary School Expansion, 1910 to 1940," NBER Working Papers 6144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 1995. "Minimum Wage Effects on Employment and School Enrollment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 199-206, April.
    6. Gary S. Becker, 1964. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, First Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck-5, January-J.
    7. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    8. Black, Dan A. & McKinnish, Terra G. & Sanders, Seth G., 2003. "Does the availability of high-wage jobs for low-skilled men affect welfare expenditures? Evidence from shocks to the steel and coal industries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 1921-1942, September.
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