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Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Edouard Challe

    (X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique, Banque de france - Banque de France)

  • François Le Grand

    (ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich], emlyon business school)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We analyse the term structure of interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, borrowing constraint, and positive net supply of government bonds. Uninsured idiosyncratic shocks generate bond trades, while aggregate shocks cause fluctuations in the trading price of bonds. Long bonds command a "liquidation risk premium" over short bonds, because they may have to be liquidated before maturity - following a bad idiosyncratic shock - precisely when their resale value is low - due to the simultaneous occurrence of a bad aggregate shock. Our framework endogenously generates limited cross-sectional wealth heterogeneity among the agents (despite the presence of uninsured idiosyncratic shocks), which allows us to characterise analytically the shape of the entire yield curve, including the yields on bonds of arbitrarily long maturities. Agents' desire to hedge the idiosyncratic risk together with their fear of having to liquidate long bonds at unfavourable terms implies that a greater bond supply raises the level of the yield curve, while an increase in the relative supply of long bonds raises its slope.

Suggested Citation

  • Edouard Challe & François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" halshs-00944920, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseose:halshs-00944920
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2013.10.003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00944920
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Allais & Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2020. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk under Imperfect Insurance," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 138, pages 1-20.
    2. François Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Incomplete markets and derivative assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 517-545, August.
    3. Yann Algan & Olivier Allais & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2016-08, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
    4. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Aggregate Consumption in Times of Crisis: The Role of Financial Frictions," Post-Print halshs-00754434, HAL.
    5. Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2021. "Sovereign default and liquidity: The case for a world safe asset," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Herrenbrueck, Lucas M. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2016. "A search-theoretic model of the term premium," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), September.
    7. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Aggregate Consumption in Times of Crisis: The Role of Financial Frictions -super-1," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 627-648, December.
    8. Xavier Ragot & Francois Le Grand, 2010. "Prices and volumes of options: A simple theory of risk sharing when markets are incomplete," 2010 Meeting Papers 300, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ms. Celine Rochon & Gabriel Desgranges, 2014. "Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default," IMF Working Papers 2014/168, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Tiago Berriel & Rodrigo Abreu, 2015. "Long Term Debt and Credit Crisis in a Liquidity Constrained Economy," Textos para discussão 644, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    11. Grand, François Le & Ragot, Xavier, 2018. "A class of tractable incomplete-market models for studying asset returns and risk exposure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 39-59.
    12. Olivier Allais & Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance," Working Papers hal-01169656, HAL.
    13. Le Grand, François, 2019. "Perron–Frobenius theory recovers more than you might think: The example of limited participation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 186-188.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; Borrowing constraint; Yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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