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Synchronization of world economic activity

Author

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  • Andreas Groth

    (IGPP - Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles] - UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California)

  • Michael Ghil

    (ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)

Abstract

Common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations are studied in a sample of more than 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world. We apply the methodology of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to identify oscillatory modes and to detect whether these modes are shared by clusters of phase- and frequency-locked oscillators. An extension of the M-SSA approach is introduced to help analyze structural changes in the cluster configuration of synchronization. With this novel technique, we are able to identify a common mode of business cycle activity across our sample, and thus point to the existence of a world business cycle. Superimposed on this mode, we further identify several major events that have markedly influenced the landscape of world economic activity in the postwar era.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2017. "Synchronization of world economic activity," Post-Print hal-01701086, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01701086
    DOI: 10.1063/1.5001820
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01701086
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    1. Sainte Fare Garnot, Vivien & Groth, Andreas & Ghil, Michael, 2018. "Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 111-123.
    2. Vivien Sainte Fare Garnot & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2018. "Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability," Post-Print hal-01855370, HAL.
    3. Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Olushina Olawale Awe & Jonatha Sousa Pimentel & Rahim Mahmoudvand, 2020. "Modelling the Behaviour of Currency Exchange Rates with Singular Spectrum Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Mahdi Kalantari & Hossein Hassani, 2019. "Automatic Grouping in Singular Spectrum Analysis," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Mao, Xuegeng & Yang, Albert C. & Peng, Chung-Kang & Shang, Pengjian, 2020. "Analysis of economic growth fluctuations based on EEMD and causal decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    6. Zhou, Shuang-Shuang & Jahanshahi, Hadi & Din, Qamar & Bekiros, Stelios & Alcaraz, Raúl & Alassafi, Madini O. & Alsaadi, Fawaz E. & Chu, Yu-Ming, 2021. "Discrete-time macroeconomic system: Bifurcation analysis and synchronization using fuzzy-based activation feedback control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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    Keywords

    Spectral Analysis; Synchronization; Business Cycles;
    All these keywords.

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