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On the cyclical variability of economic growth in Italy, 1881–1913: a critical note

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa Sella

    (University of Torino, Torino, Italy)

  • Roberto Marchionatti

    (Ceris-CNR, Moncalieri, Italy)

Abstract

Since the 1950s, beginning with Gerschenkron’s classic article, a great number of studies have examined Italy’s economic growth in the post-Unification period; and the quantitative evidence has been much improved, particularly by Fenoaltea. However, the cyclical variability of the Italian economy in the sub-period 1893–1913 is low, and apparently underestimated, in Fenoaltea’s reconstruction, whereas it was emphasized in the neglected qualitative–quantitative analyses conducted by Luigi Einaudi and his colleagues of the Turin school in the early twentieth century. This paper uses various advanced spectral methods to reconsider Italian economic growth and cycles in the post-Unification period, detecting in Italian GDP a significant structure which closely matches the Einaudians’ account of Italian development in the period 1881–1913.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Sella & Roberto Marchionatti, 2012. "On the cyclical variability of economic growth in Italy, 1881–1913: a critical note," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(3), pages 307-328, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:6:y:2012:i:3:p:307-328
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-011-0075-2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Makiko Hino & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2014. "Catching up and falling behind in technological progress: the experience of the textile and chemical industries in Italy between 1904 and 1937," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2014. "The ripples of the industrial revolution: exports, economic growth, and regional integration in Italy in the early nineteenth century," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 18(3), pages 349-369.
    3. Federico, Giovanni & Tena Junguito, Antonio, 2013. "The ripples of the Industrial revolution: exports, economic growth and regional integration in Italy in the early 19th century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp13-02, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    4. Papailias, Fotis & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2017. "EXSSA: SSA-based reconstruction of time series via exponential smoothing of covariance eigenvalues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 214-229.
    5. Stefano Fenoaltea, 2020. "The fruits of disaggregation: The engineering industry, tariff protection, and the industrial investment cycle in Italy, 1861-1913," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(292), pages 77-110.
    6. Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2014. "The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(3), pages 301-334, September.
    7. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "Rethinking the take-off: the role of services in the new economic history of Italy (1861–1951)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(3), pages 405-442, September.
    8. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    9. Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2017. "Synchronization of world economic activity," Post-Print hal-01701086, HAL.
    10. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 25-48, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Business cycles; Italian economic history; Luigi Einaudi; Spectral methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B13 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Wicksellian)
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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