Reframing The US Dollar Debate: What Outlook for the US Dollar as World Money?

It is often difficult to make sense of the range of optimistic, cautious, and pessimistic views about the sustainability of the US dollar's role as the top international currency. This paper reframes the US dollar debate by demonstrating that economists generally draw on two distinct theories of currency internationalization, with very different assumptions about how currencies achieve and maintain an international role. These assumptions often remain implicit, but are essential to make sense of the debate, as well as the question of international money more generally. The paper then considers whether crypto currencies and central bank digital currencies could play the international currency role, as understood by these theories. It concludes by reflecting on whether in an increasingly multipolar world the question of the sustainability of the US dollar's international role is misplaced, particularly given the growing support for the establishment of a true global international reserve currency.