A review of global food security scenario and assessment studies: results, gaps and research priorities

The food price crisis in 2007/2008 created a sense of urgency to reconsider the challenge of how to feed an increasing population. A number of studies have addressed the demand for and supply of food in the long run using scenario analysis, often combined with model simulations. We compare twelve food security scenario studies that have been published between 2000 and present by analysing the assumptions about key drivers of food security as well as the range in key food security outcomes. We find that most scenarios can be classified using a set of scenario families with comparable assumptions and outcomes. That said, the majority of the scenarios only deal with two of the four dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility, largely ignoring food utilisation and stability. We also find that important drivers such as bio-energy, shift in diets and climate change are only partly dealt with while new drivers and determinants such as food waste and alternative sources of food supply are not yet addressed.