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A review of global scenario exercises for food security analysis: Assumptions and results

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  • Michiel van Dijk

Abstract

The aim of this study is to review the scenario literature with a particular focus on the implications for global food security. In total nine major global scenario studies, published between 2000 and 2012, are covered. Four out of the nine studies focus explicitly on agriculture and the food system. Four others have a broader or different perspective (e.g. climate change, environment and ecosystems) but nonetheless include elements that are relevant for food security analysis. This study finds that all of the scenarios only deal with two of the four dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility, while food utilisation and stability are hardly covered. It is argued that the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are currently being developed as input to the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, might be a relevant starting point for new global scenarios for the analysis of food security issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Michiel van Dijk, 2012. "A review of global scenario exercises for food security analysis: Assumptions and results," FOODSECURE Working papers 2, LEI Wageningen UR.
    • Handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:2
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    File URL: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/02_vanDijk_Review_scenarios.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McCalla, Alex F & Revoredo, Cesar L., 2001. "Prospects for global food security: a critical appraisal of past projections and predictions," 2020 vision discussion papers 35, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Msangi, Siwa & Nelson, Gerald C. & Palazzo, Amanda & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Tokgoz, Simla & You, Liangzhi , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    4. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Wichelns, Dennis, 2010. "Satisfying future water demands for agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 502-511, April.
    5. Detlef Vuuren & James Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & John Weyant, 2011. "A special issue on the RCPs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 1-4, November.
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    8. Bruno Dorin & S. Paillard, 2010. "Agrimonde. Scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050," Post-Print hal-00797978, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evita Pangaribowo & Nicolas Gerber & Pascal Tillie, 2013. "Assessing the FNS impacts of technological and institutional innovations and future innovation trends," FOODSECURE Working papers 11, LEI Wageningen UR.
    2. Timothy A. Wise, 2013. "Can We Feed the World in 2050? A Scoping Paper to Assess the Evidence," GDAE Working Papers 13-04, GDAE, Tufts University.

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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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