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Can We Feed the World in 2050? A Scoping Paper to Assess the Evidence

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  • Timothy A. Wise

Abstract

Alarms sounded following the 2007-8 food price increases regarding our ability to feed the world in 2050. Some said we need to double food production. Other estimates projected a 60% increase in agricultural production to meet rising population and changing diets. This paper looks behind those estimates to assess many of the economic models that have generated the most widely cited projections. A range of models are assessed, a typology of modeling is offered, and the strengths and limitations of different estimates are offered. Notable weaknesses include underestimates of the impacts of biofuels expansion and the uncertainties related to climate change and its impacts on agricultural production. We conclude with a set of recommendations regarding future modeling and the need to provide policy-makers with useful scenario analysis to help them gauge the impacts of policy alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy A. Wise, 2013. "Can We Feed the World in 2050? A Scoping Paper to Assess the Evidence," GDAE Working Papers 13-04, GDAE, Tufts University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dae:daepap:13-04
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    File URL: http://www.bu.edu/eci/files/2020/01/13-04WiseFeedWorld2050.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Akpoti, Komlavi & Groen, Thomas & Dossou-Yovo, Elliott & Kabo-bah, Amos T. & Zwart, Sander J., 2022. "Climate change-induced reduction in agricultural land suitability of West-Africa's inland valley landscapes," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Shouvik Chakraborty, 2015. "Explaining the Rise in Agricultural Prices: Impact of Neoliberal Policies on the Agrarian Economy," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 4(2), pages 232-258, August.
    3. Loconto, A. & Weber, K.M. & van Dis, R. & Lhoste, E. & Bundgaard, L. & Matt, M., 2026. "Trajectories and turning points: Objects of intermediation for generalisation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Deborah Scharfy & Norman Boccali & Matthias Stucki, 2017. "Clean Technologies in Agriculture—How to Prioritise Measures?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.

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