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Effect of Climate and Agricultural Land Use Changes on UK Feed Barley Production and Food Security to the 2050s

Author

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  • David O. Yawson

    (Department of Environmental Science, College of Agriculture and Natural Sciences, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
    Department of Geography and Environmental Science, School of the Environment, University of Dundee, Nethergate, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK)

  • Barry J. Mulholland

    (ADAS UK Ltd., Battlegate Road, Boxworth, Cambridge CB23 4NN, UK)

  • Tom Ball

    (Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Winchester, Sparkford Road, Winchester SO22 4NR, UK)

  • Michael O. Adu

    (Department of Crop Science, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana)

  • Sushil Mohan

    (Brighton Business School, University of Brighton, Moulsecoomb, Brighton BN2 4AT, UK)

  • Philip J. White

    (Ecological Sciences, The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, UK)

Abstract

Currently, the UK has a high self-sufficiency rate in barley production. This paper assessed the effects of projected climate and land use changes on feed barley production and, consequently, on meat supply in the UK from the 2030s to the 2050s. Total barley production under projected land use and climate changes ranged from 4.6 million tons in the 2030s to 9.0 million tons in the 2050s. From these, the projected feed barley supply ranged from approximately 2.3 to 4.6 million tons from the 2030s to the 2050s, respectively. The results indicate that while UK spring barley production will thrive under, and benefit from climate change, total land area allocated to barley production will ultimately determine self-sufficiency. Without expansion in the area of land and/or further significant increases in yields, the UK may face large deficits in domestic feed barley production and, for that matter, meat supply in the future. Hence, agricultural and food security policy needs to consider, principally, the effect of agricultural land use change on key crops, such as barley. Even though the UK can import feed barley or meat to address the deficits observed in this study, the question that needs to be addressed is where all that import will come from.

Suggested Citation

  • David O. Yawson & Barry J. Mulholland & Tom Ball & Michael O. Adu & Sushil Mohan & Philip J. White, 2017. "Effect of Climate and Agricultural Land Use Changes on UK Feed Barley Production and Food Security to the 2050s," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-14, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:74-:d:116835
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Peng Cheng & Houtian Tang & Yue Dong & Ke Liu & Ping Jiang & Yaolin Liu, 2021. "Knowledge Mapping of Research on Land Use Change and Food Security: A Visual Analysis Using CiteSpace and VOSviewer," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Yawson, David O., 2021. "Estimating virtual land use under future conditions: Application of a food balance approach using the UK," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Assem Abu Hatab & Maria Eduarda Rigo Cavinato & Carl Johan Lagerkvist, 2019. "Urbanization, livestock systems and food security in developing countries: A systematic review of the literature," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 279-299, April.
    4. Bonoua Faye & Guoming Du, 2021. "Agricultural Land Transition in the “Groundnut Basin” of Senegal: 2009 to 2018," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Ifeoluwapo Oluwaseun Amao & Adebayo Isaiah Ogunniyi & George Mavrotas & Abiodun Olusola Omotayo, 2023. "Factors Affecting Food Security among Households in Nigeria: The Role of Crop Diversity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Sandra Ricart & Jorge Olcina & Antonio M. Rico, 2018. "Evaluating Public Attitudes and Farmers’ Beliefs towards Climate Change Adaptation: Awareness, Perception, and Populism at European Level," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Mengyang Hou & Yuanjie Deng & Shunbo Yao, 2020. "Spatial Agglomeration Pattern and Driving Factors of Grain Production in China since the Reform and Opening Up," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. William J. McConnell & Andrés Viña, 2018. "Interactions between Food Security and Land Use in the Context of Global Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-3, April.

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