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Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: new evidence from the autoregressive distributed lag approach

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Listed:
  • Mohammad Azhar Ud Din

    (AMU)

  • Shaukat Haseen

    (AMU)

Abstract

Climate change constitutes one of the most critical challenges of the contemporary period and can affect various sectors of economies across the globe, the agricultural sector is not an exception. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on India’s agricultural sector from 1990 to 2020. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was utilized to determine the short-run and long-run relationships between variables such as carbon dioxide emissions, temperature, energy utilization, and fertilizer consumption. The ARDL method and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test both supported the existence of a significant and long relationship among the selected variables. The estimated short- and long-run findings showed that carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), temperature, and energy consumption affect agricultural yield positively and significantly. These findings have several implications for the Indian economy. With a large population dependent on agriculture, improved productivity can directly impact food security and rural income, consequently leading to the country’s overall economic development. Enhanced agricultural output due to these factors may potentially lead to surplus production, allowing India to export more agricultural produce. This can positively impact the country’s trade balance and generate revenue through exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Azhar Ud Din & Shaukat Haseen, 2024. "Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: new evidence from the autoregressive distributed lag approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 377-394, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:8:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-023-00327-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00327-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Output; Climate change; India; CO2; ARDL technique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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