IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea13/155248.html

Water Scarcity and International Agricultural Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Jing
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Taheripour, Farzad
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • Ringler, Claudia

Abstract

Agriculture’s reliance on irrigation and concerns over water scarcity raise the question of how global food output and trade could be affected if the issue of water shortfall needs to be resolved on the back of agriculture. To understand changes in food production and international agricultural trade as the responses to local water shortage, we construct a computable general equilibrium model in which irrigation water supply reliability is perturbed. The results suggest that regions under water stress cut back food production and turn into net food importers, although domestic water productivity improves. The regions’ welfare falls, primarily due to less endowment available for agriculture and decline in the terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas W. & Taheripour, Farzad & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Water Scarcity and International Agricultural Trade," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 155248, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:155248
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.155248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/155248/files/Liu%20et%20al_AAEA%202013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.155248?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark W. Rosegrant & Claudia Ringler & Tingju Zhu & Simla Tokgoz & Prapti Bhandary, 2013. "Water and food in the bioeconomy: challenges and opportunities for development," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 139-150, November.
    2. Hermann Lotze‐Campen & Christoph Müller & Alberte Bondeau & Stefanie Rost & Alexander Popp & Wolfgang Lucht, 2008. "Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(3), pages 325-338, November.
    3. Anderson, Kym & Martin, William J., 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48557, World Bank.
    4. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Wichelns, Dennis, 2010. "Satisfying future water demands for agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 502-511, April.
    5. repec:iwt:bosers:h041260 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Alexandratos, Nikos & Bruinsma, Jelle, "undated". "World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision," ESA Working Papers 288998, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    7. Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Aline Mosnier & Michael Obersteiner & Justin S. Baker & Mario Herrero & Mariana C. Rufino & Erwin Schmid, 2013. "Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 442-448.
    8. repec:iwt:bosers:h041261 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Schneider, Uwe A. & Havlík, Petr & Schmid, Erwin & Valin, Hugo & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael & Böttcher, Hannes & Skalský, Rastislav & Balkovic, Juraj & Sauer, Timm & Fritz, Steffen, 2011. "Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 204-215, February.
    10. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    11. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    12. Charlotte Fraiture, 2007. "Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level. An application of WATERSIM," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 185-198, January.
    13. repec:iwt:bosers:h040193 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Tingju Zhu & Claudia Ringler & M. Mohsin Iqbal & Timothy B. Sulser & M. Arif Goheer, 2013. "Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 651-669, September.
    15. A. Hoekstra & A. Chapagain, 2007. "Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, January.
    16. repec:iwt:bosers:h039769 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Lenzen, Manfred & Moran, Daniel & Bhaduri, Anik & Kanemoto, Keiichiro & Bekchanov, Maksud & Geschke, Arne & Foran, Barney, 2013. "International trade of scarce water," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 78-85.
    18. M. Falkenmark & J. Rockström & L. Karlberg, 2009. "Present and future water requirements for feeding humanity," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 1(1), pages 59-69, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    2. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    3. María Blanco & Benjamin Van Doorslaer & Wolfgang Britz & Heinz-Peter Witzke, 2012. "Exploring the feasibility of integrating water issues into the CAPRI model," JRC Research Reports JRC77058, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    5. Wang, Xiaoxi & Dietrich, Jan P. & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Biewald, Anne & Stevanović, Miodrag & Bodirsky, Benjamin L. & Brümmer, Bernhard & Popp, Alexander, 2020. "Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. A. Hassan & M. Y. Saari & T. H. Tengku Ismail, 2017. "Virtual water trade in industrial products: evidence from Malaysia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 877-894, June.
    7. Animashaun, Jubril & Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Okoror, Okiemua T. & Osadolor, Nneka E., 2026. "Harmful temperatures and consumption expenditure: Evidence from Nigerian households," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    9. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    10. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    11. Ehsan Qasemipour & Ali Abbasi & Farhad Tarahomi, 2020. "Water-Saving Scenarios Based on Input–Output Analysis and Virtual Water Concept: A Case in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, January.
    12. Liu, Xing & Lehtonen, Heikki & Purola, Tuomo & Pavlova, Yulia & Rötter, Reimund & Palosuo, Taru, 2016. "Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 65-76.
    13. Chalise, Sudarshan & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Sarker, Tapan, 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-50.
    14. Eshita Gupta & Bharat Ramaswami & E. Somanathan, 2021. "The Distributional Impact of Climate Change: Why Food Prices Matter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 249-275, July.
    15. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    16. Arjen Y. Hoekstra, 2017. "Water Footprint Assessment: Evolvement of a New Research Field," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3061-3081, August.
    17. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    18. Phemelo Tamasiga & Helen Onyeaka & Adenike Akinsemolu & Malebogo Bakwena, 2023. "The Inter-Relationship between Climate Change, Inequality, Poverty and Food Security in Africa: A Bibliometric Review and Content Analysis Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-35, March.
    19. Randell, Heather & Jiang, Chengsheng & Liang, Xin-Zhong & Murtugudde, Raghu & Sapkota, Amir, 2021. "Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    20. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:155248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.