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Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Emilio Espino
  • Julian Kozlowski
  • Fernando M. Martin
  • Juan M. Sanchez

Abstract

Monetary policy affects the tradeoffs faced by governments in sovereign default models. In the absence of lump-sum taxation, governments rely on both distortionary taxes and seigniorage to finance expenditure. Furthermore, monetary policy adds a time-consistency problem in debt choice, which may mitigate or exacerbate the incentives to accumulate debt. A deterioration of the terms-of-trade leads to an increase in sovereign-default risk and inflation, and a reduction in growth, which are consistent with the empirical evidence for emerging economies. An unanticipated shock resembling the COVID-19 pandemic generates a significant currency depreciation, increased inflation, and distress in government finances.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Fernando M. Martin & Juan M. Sanchez, 2020. "Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19," Working Papers 2020-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 07 Aug 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88355
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Emerging markets

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," Staff Report 603, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default; Fiscal Policy; Sovereign Debt; Emerging Markets; Inflation; Time-consistency; Crises; COVID-19; Seigniorage; Country Risk; Exchange Rate;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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