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Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default

Author

Listed:
  • Emilio Espino
  • Julian Kozlowski
  • Fernando M. Martin
  • Juan M. Sanchez

Abstract

This paper incorporates fiscal and monetary policies into a model of sovereign default. In addition to the standard present-bias vs default-risk tradeoff faced by governments when choosing debt, distortionary policy instruments introduce an intertemporal tradeoff, which may mitigate or exacerbate the incentives to accumulate debt. Taxation, the money growth rate and currency depreciation all increase with the level of debt. The model reproduces standard business cycle statistics, the response of spreads, inflation and growth to terms-of-trade shocks, and the cyclical properties of fiscal and monetary policies in emerging markets. A counterfactual exercise for Argentina in 2005-2017 suggests that government expansion accounted for the rise in taxes, inflation and currency depreciation and kept output growth low, countering the benign effects of favorable terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Fernando M. Martin & Juan M. Sanchez, 2020. "Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default," Working Papers 2020-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 20 May 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88355
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Emerging markets

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel P. Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 27275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crises; Default; Sovereign Debt; Exchange Rate; Country Risk; Inflation; Seigniorage; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Emerging Markets; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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