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Domestic and cross-border consequences of U.S. macroeconomic policies

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  • Ralph C. Bryant
  • John F. Helliwell
  • Peter Hooper

Abstract

This paper reviews empirical evidence about the effects of changes in U.S. monetary policy and fiscal policy that has been accumulated during recent years in a series of collaborative research projects involving a variety of global macroeconometric models. The paper also considers, in particular, the consequences over the next five to six years for key U.S. and foreign economic variables of a significant U.S. fiscal contraction. The quantitative implications of both alternative fiscal spending and tax actions, and alternative treatments of expectations (adaptive versus rational) are analyzed. ; The results suggest that a phased-in fiscal contraction could reduce the level of output for up to several years, as well as the levels of interest rates, the dollar and the U.S. external deficit. The decline in the external deficit would be significantly smaller than the decline in the budget deficit, however. The negative effects on output would be mitigated to the extent that the phased-in contraction were anticipated (i.e., announced credibly in advance), to the extent that monetary policy were eased, or to the extent that the fiscal package emphasized spending cuts and personal taxes rather than corporate and excise taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph C. Bryant & John F. Helliwell & Peter Hooper, 1989. "Domestic and cross-border consequences of U.S. macroeconomic policies," International Finance Discussion Papers 344, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Agnès Bénassy & Henri Sterdyniak, 1992. "La détermination des taux de change dans les modèles multinationaux : l'état de l'art," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 39-71.
    2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Armand-Denis Schor, 1998. "The International Role of the Euro," Working Papers 1998-03, CEPII research center.
    3. Deborah J. Danker & Peter Hooper, 1990. "International financial markets and the U.S. external imbalance," International Finance Discussion Papers 372, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Nikiforos Laopodis, 2000. "Monetary policy implications of volatility linkages among long-term interest rates," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(2), pages 160-177, June.
    5. John F. Helliwell, 1990. "Fiscal Policy and the External Deficit: Siblings, but not Twins," NBER Working Papers 3313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Obstacles to Coordination, and a Consideration of Two Proposals to Overcome Them: International Nominal Targeting (INT) and the Hosomi Fund," NBER Chapters, in: International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuations, pages 109-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bilgili, Faik & Bilgili, Emine, 1998. "Bütçe açığının cari işlemler üzerindeki etkileri: Teori ve uygulama [The effects of budget deficit on current account balance: Theory and empirical evidence]," MPRA Paper 80866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Levin, Jay H., 1997. "Stabilization policy, exchange rate expectations, and international transmission," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-40, February.
    9. John F. Helliwell, 1989. "From Now till Then: Globalization and Economic Co-operation," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(s1), pages 71-77, February.
    10. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.

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    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Monetary policy;

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