International financial markets and the U.S. external imbalance
This paper analyzes movements in the U.S. external imbalance over the 1980s from the perspective of the capital account. It considers the empirical evidence on two competing hypotheses about the causes of the large and persistent net capital inflow during the decade: one that the capital inflow was induced by a substantial increase in the expected rate of return on real fixed investment in the United States relative to other countries, and the other that strong U.S. fiscal stimulus and a declining private savings rate boosted demand for credit in the United States. ; The empirical evidence that we review on this score include the pattern and composition of capital inflows, trends in the components of U.S. domestic saving and investment, and movements in U.S. relative to foreign rates of return across different types of real and financial assets. The evidence strongly supports the view that the net capital inflow resulted from an increase in demand for credit, and not to any significant degree from an increase in the relative rate of return on real fixed investment in the United States. ; We also consider the sustainability of the U.S. external imbalance. Available empirical evidence on this score suggests that over the short to medium term at least, continued large U.S. external deficits could be absorbed manageably into foreign portfolios. Nevertheless, if those deficits continue to finance U.S. government and private consumption rather than the increased rate of domestic investment that would be needed eventually to service the associated external debt, they are not sustainable in the long run.
|Date of creation:||1990|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Saburo Okita & Peter G. Peterson & James R. Schlesinger, 1988.
"International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies,"
NBER Chapters,in: The United States in the World Economy, pages 559-658
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1987. "international Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1q85b9j6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1987. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies," NBER Working Papers 2210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1987. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies," Economics Working Papers 8739, University of California at Berkeley.
- Ralph C. Bryant & John F. Helliwell & Peter Hooper, 1989. "Domestic and cross-border consequences of U.S. macroeconomic policies," International Finance Discussion Papers 344, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bryant, R.C. & Helliwell, J.F. & Hooper, P., 1989. "Domestic And Cross-Border Consequences Of U.S. Macroeconomic Policies," Papers 68, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters,in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 2856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1989. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4fw7c7bh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
- Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lois Stekler, 1989. "Adequacy of International Transactions and Position Data for Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 2844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David H. Howard, 1989. "Implications of the U.S. current account deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 350, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Howard, David H, 1989. "Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 153-165, Fall.
- Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040 Elsevier.
- Stephen D. Oliner, 1989. "The formation of private business capital: trends, recent developments, and measurement issues," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 771-783. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.