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How would tax reform affect financial markets?

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  • John E. Golob

Abstract

The U.S. Congress is evaluating several proposals to reform the federal income tax system. Proponents of tax reform want to simplify tax preparation and stimulate economic growth by increasing the incentives for taxpayers to work, save, and invest.> While the primary objective of tax reform is a more productive economy, changing the tax laws would also affect financial markets. Several of the proposals would change the way interest expenses are deducted and change the way income from interest, dividends, and capital gains is taxed. These changes would affect interest rates and the prices of stocks.> Golob analyzes the effects of income tax reform on U.S. financial markets. He reaches three conclusions. First, most proposals would reduce interest rates in credit markets where interest income is currently taxable, including bank loans, Treasury securities, and corporate securities. Second, all proposals would increase interest rates in municipal credit markets where interest income is not currently taxable. And third, most proposals would increase stock prices. All three of these effects could be substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • John E. Golob, 1995. "How would tax reform affect financial markets?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 80(Q IV), pages 19-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1995:i:qiv:p:19-39:n:v.80no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahfoudh Hussein Mgammal & Ebrahim Mohammed Al-Matari & Talal Fawzi Alruwaili, 2023. "Value-added-tax rate increases: A comparative study using difference-in-difference with an ARIMA modeling approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. John E. Golob, 1996. "How would a flat tax affect small businesses?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q III), pages 5-19.
    3. Richardson, James W. & Smith, Edward G. & Knutson, Ronald & Gray, Allan W. & Klose, Steven L. & Nixon, Clair J., 1996. "Economic Impacts of a Flat Tax on Representative Crop, Livestock, and Dairy Farms: Revised," Working Papers 258075, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    4. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Mahendhiran S. Nair & John H. Hall, 2022. "The dynamics between financial market development, taxation propensity, and economic growth: a study of OECD and non-OECD countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1503-1534, June.
    5. Naeem Akram, 2016. "Do Financial Sector Activities Affect Tax Revenue in Pakistan?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 153-169, July-Dec.
    6. C. Alan Garner, 2005. "Consumption taxes : macroeconomic effects and policy issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 90(Q II), pages 5-29.
    7. Christine A. Wilson & Allen M. Featherstone & Del D. Elffner, 2002. "The Effects of a Federal Flat Tax on Agriculture," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 160-180.
    8. Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari & Roshaiza Taha & Muhammad Imran Farooq, 2014. "Tax Revenue, Stock Market and Economic Growth of Pakistan," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 5(5), pages 136-148, October.

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