IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vuw/vuwcpf/2706.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Growth Effects of Tax Rates in the OECD

Author

Listed:
  • Gemmell, Norman
  • Kneller, Richard
  • Sanz, Ismael

Abstract

The literature testing for aggregate impacts of taxes on long-run growth rates in the OECD has generally used tax rate measures constructed from macroeconomic aggregates such as tax revenues. These have a number of advantages but two major disadvantages: they are typically average, rather than marginal, rates, and are constructed from endogenous tax revenues. Theory predicts a number of responses to both average and marginal tax rates, but empirical analogues of the latter tend to be at the micro level. In addition though most OECD economies are best regarded as small open economies, previous macroeconomic tests of OECD tax-growth relationships have implicitly been based on closed-economy models, focusing on domestic tax rates. This paper explores the relevance of these two aspects – "macro average‟ versus "micro marginal‟ tax rates, and open economy dimensions – for test of tax-growth effects in OECD countries. We use annual panel data on a number of average and marginal tax rate measures and find: (i) statistically small and/or non-robust effects of macro-based average tax rates on capital income and consumption but more evidence for average labor income tax effects; (ii) statistically robust GDP growth effects of modest size from changes in marginal income tax rates at both the personal and corporate levels; (iii) international tax competition, in which both domestic and foreign corporate tax rates play a role, is consistent with the data; (iv) tax effects on GDP growth appear to operate largely via impacts on factor productivity rather than factor accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gemmell, Norman & Kneller, Richard & Sanz, Ismael, 2013. "The Growth Effects of Tax Rates in the OECD," Working Paper Series 2706, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:2706
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/handle/10063/2706
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1986. "Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 555-566, October.
    3. Devereux, Michael P & Griffith, Rachel, 2003. "Evaluating Tax Policy for Location Decisions," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 10(2), pages 107-126, March.
    4. David Carey & Harry Tchilinguirian, 2000. "Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 258, OECD Publishing.
    5. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    6. Herwig Immervoll, 2004. "Average and Marginal Effective Tax Rates Facing Workers in the EU: A Micro-Level Analysis of Levels, Distributions and Driving Factors," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 19, OECD Publishing.
    7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    8. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2011. "The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 33-58, February.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    10. David Carey & Josette Rabesona, 2003. "Tax Ratios on Labour and Capital Income and on Consumption," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2002(2), pages 129-174.
    11. Park, Hyun & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2003. "On the dynamics of growth and fiscal policy with redistributive transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3-4), pages 515-538, March.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    13. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    14. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    15. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    16. Harry Grubert & Joel Slemrod, 1998. "The Effect Of Taxes On Investment And Income Shifting To Puerto Rico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 365-373, August.
    17. Devereux, Michael P. & Lockwood, Ben & Redoano, Michela, 2008. "Do countries compete over corporate tax rates?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1210-1235, June.
    18. Michael P. Devereux & Rachel Griffith & Alexander Klemm, 2002. "Corporate income tax reforms and international tax competition," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 449-495, October.
    19. Li Wenli & Pierre -Daniel Sarte, 2004. "Progressive Taxation and Long-Run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1705-1716, December.
    20. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    21. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    22. Rebelo, Sergio, 1992. "Growth in open economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-46, July.
    23. Michael B. Devereux & David R. F. Love, 1994. "The Effects of Factor Taxation in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 509-536, August.
    24. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "International profit shifting within multinationals: A multi-country perspective," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1164-1182, June.
    25. Jens Arnold & Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2007. "Solow or Lucas?: Testing Growth Models Using Panel Data from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 592, OECD Publishing.
    26. Devereux, Michael B & Love, David R F, 1995. "The Dynamic Effects of Government Spending Policies in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 232-256, February.
    27. Devereux, Michael P. & Griffith, Rachel, 1998. "Taxes and the location of production: evidence from a panel of US multinationals," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 335-367, June.
    28. Jens Arnold, 2008. "Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 643, OECD Publishing.
    29. Padovano, Fabio & Galli, Emma, 2002. "Comparing the growth effects of marginal vs. average tax rates and progressivity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 529-544, September.
    30. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Economides, George & Kammas, Pantelis, 2007. "Tax-spending policies and economic growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 885-902, December.
    31. Futagami, Koichi & Morita, Yuichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1993. " Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 607-625, December.
    32. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
    33. Peretto, Pietro F, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth in R&D-Based Models with Endogenous Market Structure," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 325-347, September.
    34. Jens Matthias Arnold & Bert Brys & Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Cyrille Schwellnus & Laura Vartia, 2011. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 59-80, February.
    35. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
    36. Lee, Young & Gordon, Roger H., 2005. "Tax structure and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1027-1043, June.
    37. Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2003. "Public Investment Rules and Endogenous Growth with Empirical Evidence from Canada," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 90-110, February.
    38. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Strauch, Rolf, 2008. "Public finances and long-term growth in Europe: Evidence from a panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 172-191, March.
    39. Kaas, Leo, 2003. "Productive government spending, growth, and sequential voting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 227-246, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:coecpo:v:35:y:2017:i:1:p:165-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gemmell Norman & Au Joey, 2013. "Do Smaller Governments Raise the Level or Growth of Output? A Review of Recent Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 85-116, August.
    3. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2016. "Does the Composition of Government Expenditure Matter for Long-Run GDP Levels?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 522-547, August.
    4. A. Minniti & F. Venturini, 2014. "R&D Policy and Schumpeterian Growth: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers wp945, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. James Alm, 2017. "Is Economics Useful for Public Policy?," Working Papers 1702, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    6. Kaisa Alavuotunki & Mika Haapanen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2017. "The Consequences of the Value-Added Tax on Inequality," CESifo Working Paper Series 6318, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Oguzhan Akgun & Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2017. "The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1447, OECD Publishing.
    8. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2016. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 16/37, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Kaisa Alavuotunki, & Jukka Pirttilä2, 2015. "The consequences of the value-added tax on inequality," WIDER Working Paper Series 111, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Alm, James, 2018. "Is Economics Useful for Public Policy?," Working Paper Series 6824, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    11. repec:spr:italej:v:3:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40797-017-0056-0 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    marginal tax rates; average tax rates; personal tax; corporate tax; GDP growth;

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:2706. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Library Technology Services). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fcvuwnz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.