IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fme/wpaper/101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic transition and the rise of wealth inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Joanna Tyrowicz

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    University of Warsaw
    Institute of Labor Economics (IZA))

  • Krzysztof Makarski

    (Katedra Ekonomii Ilościowej Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Piotr Zoch

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych Uniwersytet Warszawski)

Abstract

We analyze the contribution of rising longevity to the increase in wealth inequality in the U.S. over the past seventy years. To do so, we construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model with multiple sources of inequality, carefully calibrated to the data. Our key finding is that improvements in old-age longevity have a substantial impact on wealth inequality, accounting for approximately half the effect of income inequality, which has been the focus of much of the existing literature. In contrast, the impact of tax changes is relatively minor. The contribution of rising longevity is expected to continue driving wealth inequality upward in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Joanna Tyrowicz & Krzysztof Makarski & Piotr Zoch, 2025. "Demographic transition and the rise of wealth inequality," GRAPE Working Papers 101, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fme:wpaper:101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://grape.org.pl/WP/101_Makarski_website.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Growth and Saving Among Individuals and Households," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 212-225, May.
    2. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    3. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2007. "Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1677-1719.
    4. Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1986. "Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 555-566, October.
    5. Edward Wolff & Maury Gittleman, 2014. "Inheritances and the distribution of wealth or whatever happened to the great inheritance boom?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(4), pages 439-468, December.
    6. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2017. "On financing retirement with an aging population," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 75-115, March.
    7. Laurent Bach & Laurent E. Calvet & Paolo Sodini, 2020. "Rich Pickings? Risk, Return, and Skill in Household Wealth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2703-2747, September.
    8. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 58-79, January.
    9. Joachim Hubmer & Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith., 2021. "Sources of US Wealth Inequality: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 391-455.
    10. Karel Mertens & José Luis Montiel Olea, 2018. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1803-1884.
    11. Joanna Tyrowicz & Marcin Lewandowski & Jan Svejnar & Krzysztof Makarski, 2024. "Factors behind rising U.S. wealth inequality: a decomposition and policy implications," GRAPE Working Papers 100, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    12. Matthieu Gomez, 2023. "Decomposing the Growth of Top Wealth Shares," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 979-1024, May.
    13. Sandra E Black & Paul J Devereux & Fanny Landaud & Kjell G Salvanes, 2025. "The (Un)Importance of Inheritance," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 1060-1094.
    14. Simon H. Boserup & Wojciech Kopczuk & Claus T. Kreiner, 2016. "The Role of Bequests in Shaping Wealth Inequality: Evidence from Danish Wealth Records," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 656-661, May.
    15. Facundo Alvaredo & Bertrand Garbinti & Thomas Piketty, 2017. "On the Share of Inheritance in Aggregate Wealth: Europe and the USA, 1900–2010," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(334), pages 239-260, April.
    16. Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1983. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rate from the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 419-452, October.
    17. Barro, Robert J. & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1983. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," Working Papers 29, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    18. David Autor & Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2020. "Extending the Race between Education and Technology," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 347-351, May.
    19. Edward N. Wolff, 2002. "Inheritances and Wealth Inequality, 1989–1998," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 260-264, May.
    20. Timo Boppart & Per Krusell, 2020. "Labor Supply in the Past, Present, and Future: A Balanced-Growth Perspective," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(1), pages 118-157.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian Nolan & Juan C. Palomino & Philippe Van Kerm & Salvatore Morelli, 2022. "Intergenerational wealth transfers in Great Britain from the Wealth and Assets Survey in comparative perspective," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 179-199, June.
    2. Robert J. Barro & Brian Wheaton, 2020. "Taxes, Incorporation, and Productivity," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 91-111.
    3. Christophe Van Langenhove, 2025. "Wealth Mobility in the United States: Empirical Evidence from the PSID," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1104, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Elinder, Mikael & Erixson, Oscar & Waldenström, Daniel, 2018. "Inheritance and wealth inequality: Evidence from population registers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 17-30.
    5. Dr. Belkacem Laabas , Dr. Weshah Razzak, "undated". "Taxes, Natural Resource Endowment, and the Supply of Labor: New Evidence," API-Working Paper Series 1005, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    6. Alan Ahearne & Finn Kydland & Mark A. Wynne, 2006. "Ireland’s Great Depression," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 215-243.
    7. Boskin, Michael J. & Lau, Lawrence J., 1988. "An Analysis of Postwar U.S. Consumption and Saving," CEPR Publications 244417, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Eon-Seon Rym & Faik Koray, 2004. "Average marginal tax rates in the UK economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2369-2372.
    9. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    10. Bönke, Timm & Werder, Marten v. & Westermeier, Christian, 2017. "How inheritances shape wealth distributions: An international comparison," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 217-220.
    11. Gomme, Paul & Rupert, Peter, 2007. "Theory, measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 460-497, March.
    12. Razzak, W A, 2010. "A contribution towards New Zealand's tax reform," MPRA Paper 25680, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2010.
    13. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2014. "The growth effects of tax rates in the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1217-1255, November.
    14. Richard Audoly & Rory McGee & Sergio Ocampo & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2024. "The Life-Cycle Dynamics of Wealth Mobility," Staff Reports 1097, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    16. Karel Mertens & José Luis Montiel Olea, 2018. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1803-1884.
    17. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Komada, Oliwia, 2024. "Capital income taxation and reforming social security in an OLG economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    18. Perotti, Roberto & Monacelli, Tommas, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects and Markups," CEPR Discussion Papers 7099, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Arrigoni, Simone, 2024. "Who gets the flow? Financial globalisation and wealth inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Chittenden, William T. & Hein, Scott E., 1999. "Tax rate changes and the long-run equilibrium relationship between taxable and tax-exempt interest rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 327-346, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fme:wpaper:101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Hagemejer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/grauwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.